Looks like this morning’s total snowfall estimates are still pretty good, which the exception being up to 7 inches possible as far south as Logansport and Marion and just north of Muncie, Here’s the latest technical discussion from the Storm Prediction Center:
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 1.5 IN/HR WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN LOWER MI...FAR NRN IND...AND FAR NWRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WRN SEGMENT OF A BIFURCATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT PEELING AROUND A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE FROM SRN ONTARIO INTO LOWER MI AND FARTHER S INTO IND/IL. MODIFIED MARITIME PARCEL TRAJECTORIES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BELT ARE SUPPORTING A BROAD ZONE OF 0.85-1-INCH PW VALUES PER GPS DATA. AND...WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND INFERRED WAA PER VWP DATA...A BROAD SHIELD OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NWRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE NEWD-MIGRATING CYCLONE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE WEAKENING 850-500-MB FRONTOGENESIS... WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS /TAPERING OFF AFTER 06Z/. TURRET STRUCTURES AMIDST THE LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE MANIFESTATIONS OF THE VERY MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES BELOW 100 J PER KG/ ROOTED ABOVE THE 600-MB LEVEL...AND A N ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP BANDS. WHILE RAIN IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD POCKET /TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S/ EVOLVING OVER CNTRL IND WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS BEING REPORTED. THIS IS THE RESULT OF COLUMNAR ADIABATIC COOLING OWING TO STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT. AS THIS ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE SSW... AND NOCTURNAL COOLING EVENTUALLY COMMENCES... THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AFTER 23Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 1.5 IN/HR ARE ANTICIPATED...GREATEST OVER S-CNTRL LOWER MI...FAR NRN IND...AND EXTREME NWRN OH PRIOR TO 01Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN W/NW OF METRO DETROIT. ALSO OF NOTE...THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER...THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY MITIGATE THIS THREAT THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNDERWAY.
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