…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Sunday and a
Slight Risk over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Monday…
…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Tennessee Valley on Sunday…
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday and the Southern Plains on Tuesday…
…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern
Texas…
On Sunday evening, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes/Middle
Mississippi Valley and southwestward to the Southern Plains will move to
the Eastern Seaboard by Tuesday evening. The boundary will create an area
of showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern Missouri and the
Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley
and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Monday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added
threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail, two inches or greater, over parts
of the Lower Mississippi/Western Tennessee Valleys. Further, there will be
an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater
region over parts of the Eastern Ohio/Eastern Tennessee Valleys.
Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to
develop over parts of far eastern Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and
the southern third of Kentucky. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee Valley.
The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding.
Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.
In addition, another region will experience a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of Wisconsin. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the
Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.
On Monday, as the front moves from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
boundary over the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Also, on Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall will move eastward to
parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast from Monday through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.
On Tuesday, near the western portion of the front over the Southern
Plains, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward,
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern Plains on Tuesday through Tuesday night. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern High Plains will move
eastward to the Great Lakes, reinforcing an upper-level trough by Tuesday.
The energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Plains
on Sunday evening, moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday and
into the Great Lakes by Tuesday.
Moreover, a weakening front along the Pacific Northwest Coast will aid in
producing rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast through Monday
afternoon.
Furthermore, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in
spawning Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas
and into the Central Gulf Coast through Memorial Day. The ridging will
create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas, Central Gulf
Coast, and southern Florida. Record or near-record warm overnight
temperatures will provide little to no relief to those without adequate or
reliable cooling. High temperatures will be at or near record highs, and
heat index readings over 115 degrees over the regions will also be
possible. The heat is expected to continue into Memorial Day, with a cold
front passing the area after Memorial Day. Check local media and
government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if
you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. Drink plenty of water,
avoid alcohol, wear lightweight clothing, and take regular breaks indoors
or in the shade.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php