…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains on Saturday and an Enhanced Risk over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley on Sunday…
…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Monday…
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Thursday…
… There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern
Texas…
On Saturday evening, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley and westward to the Central High Plains will move eastward to off
the Northeast Coast by Sunday evening. Also, on Saturday, a dryline
extending from western Kansas southward to southwestern Texas will aid in
producing showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
Kansas, Oklahoma, and central Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added
threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail, two inches or greater over the
region. Further, another added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of
65 knots or greater over the Kansas, western Missouri, and parts of
northern Oklahoma.
Furthermore, there will be another region with a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the southeastern Alabama and western Georgia.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest through Sunday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop
over parts of the southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, western Missouri,
and extreme northeastern Oklahoma/northwestern Arkansas. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley and through Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.
Overnight Saturday, a new front will develop over the Southern High Plains
and move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes, Central/Southern Appalachians
then southwestward to the Southern Plains by Monday evening. The boundary
will create an area of showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of
eastern Missouri and the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there
will be an added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, hail, two inches or
greater, and severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over
parts of the region.
Moreover, some showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle Mississippi Valley, and
Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Appalachians from Sunday through
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
On Monday, as the front moves from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop as the front over the Plains
moves onto the Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
The hazards associated with these strong to severe thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes
Also, on Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall will eastward to parts
of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central
Appalachians from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the Great Basin will move eastward
to the Ohio Valley by Monday. The energy will produce rain and highest
elevation snow over parts of the Pacifica Northwest, Northern
Intermountain Region, and Northern/Central Rockies from Saturday evening
tapering off by Sunday evening. Moreover, weak onshore flow will aid in
producing rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast through Monday
afternoon.
Furthermore, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in
spawning Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas
through Monday. The ridging will create a dangerous early-season heat wave
over south Texas and southern Florida. Record or near-record warm
overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief to those without
adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend, record daily high
temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees over the regions
will also be possible. The heat is expected to continue into Memorial Day
with a cold front passing the area after Memorial Day. Check local media
and government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially
if you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. Drink plenty of
water and avoid alcohol, wear lightweight clothing, and take regular
breaks indoors or in the shade.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php