…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains/ Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and over parts of
the Central Plains on Thursday…
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and Thursday…
…Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies on
Wednesday evening into Thursday…
On Wednesday evening, a front over the Northern Intermountain Region to
the Great Basin will advance to the Northern/Central Plains into the
Central Rockies by Thursday. The system will produce rain and
higher-elevation snow over the Northern Cascades. As the boundary moves
farther eastward, the snow levels will lower, producing snow over the
Northern Intermountain Region overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The
system will produce heavy snow at the higher elevations of the Northern
Rockies through Thursday, and the snow will end overnight Thursday.
In addition, another front extending from the Lower Great Lakes
southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move eastward to the
Northeast Coast by Thursday evening. On Thursday, the southern half of the
boundary moves northward as a warm front over the Southern Plains.
The front will fire showers and severe thunderstorms from western New York
to the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southern Plains through Thursday morning. The potential hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of rain, two inches or greater, over parts of the area.
Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to
develop over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains through
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
On Thursday, as the front from the Northwest moves out of the Rockies, the
system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over most of the
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added
threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over the
region. Furthermore, there will be another region of an increased threat
of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Central/Southern Plains.
Moreover, some showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.
On Friday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
decreases slightly as the boundary moves into the Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Western Ohio Valley and Middle Lower
Mississippi. The hazards associated with these strong to severe
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.
Similarly, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy
rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes,
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Moreover,
there is a second area of Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.
Meanwhile, a tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in spawning
Heat Advisories over southern Texas through Friday. The ridging will
create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas. Record or
near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief
to those without adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend, record
daily high temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees in south
Texas will also be possible. Check local media and government websites for
cooling center locations and hours, especially if you encounter or are
dealing with a loss of power. If you use a portable generator, do so
safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Never use a generator inside a
house, garage, or other enclosed space!
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php