…Winter Storm to produce high winds and snow across the Western High
Plains…
…Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Risk continues over portions of the
Central/Southern High Plains…
…Warm start to the week for much of the east-central U.S. and below
average for the West…
The main thing making weather headlines this weekend will be the strong
low pressure system over Nebraska that slowly drifts eastward to northern
Iowa and southern Minnesota by Sunday night. The sub 990 mb low will have
an impressive wind field around it across much of the western High Plains
through Sunday, and this will produce 25-50 mph winds with higher gusts
from eastern New Mexico to eastern Nebraska, where high wind warnings are
currently in effect. In addition, very dry conditions combined with these
winds is leading to an environment favorable for wildfire growth,
especially for western portions of the Southern Plains where a critical
fire risk is depicted by SPC, and even a small extreme risk area just
north of the Texas Panhandle for Saturday afternoon/evening. There is
also a winter storm component to this low pressure system, with additional
heavy snow expected across eastern Wyoming/Montana and western portions of
the Dakotas and Nebraska, with some blizzard conditions possible at times.
By the time the low reaches the Upper Midwest, a weakening trend will be
in progress with lingering showers across this region going into Monday,
and more snow showers over the Dakotas.
For the total solar eclipse on Monday afternoon, mostly cloudy to overcast
skies are likely across central/eastern Texas and into southern Arkansas
as Gulf moisture increases ahead of the next storm system developing over
the Southern Plains. Some severe weather is possible later on Monday for
much of this same region. There will probably be some breaks in the
clouds from northern Arkansas to central Ohio behind the passage of the
warm front, and then mostly cloudy from eastern Ohio to western portions
of New York. Clearer skies are currently likely across northern New
England, although some high clouds can’t be ruled out from Upstate New
York to Vermont.
Much of the Western U.S. should be below average in terms of temperatures
through the weekend behind the Great Plains storm system, while the East
Coast sees a moderation trend compared to recent cold weather. The warm
front crossing the Ohio Valley will bring a welcomed return to more
pleasant spring-like readings to start the work week, with highs well into
the 70s on Monday as far north as northern Illinois and Indiana.
Hamrick
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php