Storm Prediction Center just before 5 this afternoon:
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF BILL HAD STARTED TO RECOVER FROM THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE WHERE THE 850 MB FLOW RIDES UP AND OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AT MID LEVELS. HI-RES MODELS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN INCREASE IN BANDED CONVECTION EAST OF BILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL AS ALONG AND NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 3000 J PER KG FROM THE PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES WHICH WAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARDIZED ANAMOLIES ABOVE NORMAL. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES OF 2"/HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLINED AREA WITH HIGHEST RISK PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE STARTIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE FFG VALUES WERE AS LOW AS 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES PER HOUR.]]>
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