It appears a Tornado Watch won’t be issued, but a localized severe weather threat remains.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...LOCALIZED TORNADO RISK HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE. DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK WARM FRONT AROUND 25 N SLO TO 25 S BMG. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST SW OF BMG HAS HAD WEAK ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES ON RADAR AND APPARENT TORNADO REPORTS PER WFO IND. WITH THIS ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ENHANCED 0-1 KM SRH TO AROUND 200 M2/S2 PER IND VWP DATA HAS CLEARLY BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO RISK. STILL...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE BULK OF TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AOB 6 DEG
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