…Active severe weather setup from the southern Plains to the Southeast
this weekend and into Monday…
…Heavy showers & thunderstorms to pose both a flash flooding and severe
weather threat in parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic…
…Stifling heat dome to build in throughout much of the West and the
western Gulf Coast; hottest temperatures compared to normal centered over
the Northwest…
The main thing making weather headlines over the next couple of days will
be the potential severe weather outbreak across portions of Oklahoma and
northern Texas on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk
of severe thunderstorms from the Texas Panhandle to just north of the
greater Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. There will likely be scattered to
numerous supercells that evolve into multiple mesoscale convective systems
(MCS), with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats, and some
tornadoes are also a possibility. An approaching cold front from the north
will intercept a highly unstable environment east of the dry line, and
fuel the development of intense convection going into the afternoon and
evening hours. In addition to the severe weather threat, periods of heavy
rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding across this same
general area through early Monday morning, with some areas potentially
getting 2 to 4 inches of rain.
Another area of stormy weather is expected to be across coastal portions
of the Southeast U.S. into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday as a wave of low
pressure and an upper level disturbance moves overhead, where a Slight
Risk of both severe weather and excessive rainfall is valid, with the
heaviest rain mainly confined to Virginia and eastern West Virginia. More
heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely for the beginning of the work
week across much of the Southeast U.S. as a frontal boundary stalls across
the region. Farther north across Pennsylvania into Upstate New York, a
line of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall is likely to develop ahead of a
cold front on Monday.
Elsewhere across the Continental U.S., widespread anomalous heat will
continue to affect interior portions of the Pacific Northwest through
Monday with heat advisories in effect from northern California to eastern
Washington and northern Idaho, and daily record highs are likely for some
areas. It will also continue to be uncomfortably hot and humid from Texas
and extending east across the Gulf Coast, with high dewpoints and
temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s making it feel over 100
degrees at times during the afternoon hours. Air quality alerts are in
effect across portions of the Northeast and also the Upper Midwest as
wildfire smoke from distant Canadian wildfires continues to infiltrate
those areas. There is also an elevated wildfire risk across eastern
portions of Montana on Sunday.
Hamrick
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
