…Active severe weather setup from the southern Plains to the Southeast
this weekend and into Monday…
…Heavy showers & thunderstorms to pose both a flash flooding and severe
weather threat in parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic…
…Stifling heat dome to build in throughout much of the West and the
western Gulf Coast; hottest temperatures compared to normal centered in
the Northwest…
A series of frontal systems will be responsible for a wet and stormy
weekend and upcoming Monday across the southern and eastern U.S.. Focusing
on the Southern Tier of the Lower 48 to start, a hot and steamy air-mass
is in place ahead of a frontal boundary that stretches from the southern
High Plains to as far east as the Northeast coast. Severe storms are
anticipated this afternoon and into tonight from the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles to the southern Mid-Atlantic. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
is most concerned with severe weather potential in the Mid-South where an
Enhanced Risk (threat level 3/5) is present over northern Mississippi,
northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and southern Tennessee. Damaging winds
are the greatest concern there, while the rest of the previously mentioned
regions of the South could see any combination of damaging winds, large
hail, or tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather, flash flooding is
also of concern from the ArkLaTex on east across the Mid-South where WPC
has a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) through tonight. Sunday’s severe
weather potential is even greater with SPC placing a Moderate Risk (threat
level 4/5) along the Red River Valley of southern Oklahoma and northern
Texas. Powerful storms capable of generating exceptional wind gusts and
significant hail are possible in the Southern Plains, as well as Excessive
Rainfall, which has prompted WPC to issue a Slight Risk from the Texas
Panhandle on east along the Red River and into the ArkLaTex region. A
Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) for severe weather is also present in
portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley. By Monday, the cold front
starts to move a little farther south and east, but it is still likely to
trigger additional severe storms throughout the South. SPC does have a
sizable Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) from the Lower Mississippi Valley
to the South Carolina/Georgia coast.
Farther north, another frontal system is the culprit in igniting numerous
showers and severe storms across the Upper Midwest and Northeast today.
SPC does have a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/5) in the Northern Plains as
a cold front approaches from southern Canada. Meanwhile, the Northeast and
Ohio Valley feature saturated soils and training showers and storms; an
ideal recipe for flash flooding this evening and into tonight. WPC has a
pair of Slight Risks in these regions through early Sunday morning. The
Excessive Rainfall threat persists in the Upper Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary and no shortage of
atmospheric moisture support additional areas of flash flooding. A Slight
Risk is being introduced for these regions for Sunday, including the
DC/Baltimore metro areas. Monday features an expansive Marginal Risk area
for Excessive Rainfall that stretches from the Tennessee Valley on north
through the northern Mid-Atlantic. Areas most prone to flash flooding on
Monday will likely be portions of the Upper Ohio Valley, Central
Appalachians, and northern Mid-Atlantic where soils will only continue to
grow more and more saturated following the stormy weather over the weekend.
While the South and East are mired in an active weather pattern, the West
will be mostly dry this weekend and into Monday. The lone exceptions are
the elevated regions of the Intermountain West which include mountain
ranges such as the Sierra Nevada, the Great Basin, the Wasatch, the
Mogollon Rim, and as far east as the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies. These
areas can see diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening. The Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest will not only be
dry, but grow increasingly hot each day into early next week. The hottest
temperatures compared to normal will be found in the Northwest with daily
record high temps both Sunday and Monday. By Monday, daytime highs in
parts of Oregon and Washington will make a run at the century mark. There
are Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Watches that remain in effect for
the Pacific Northwest both Sunday and Monday to highlight the stifling
heat that HeatRisk suggests will sport Moderate to Major Risks for
heat-related impacts. Please visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for
more information on HeatRisk. Similar Moderate-to-Major HeatRisk potential
exists in the Great Valley of California, the Great Basin, the Mojave
Desert, and into the Lower Colorado River Basin both Sunday and Monday.
High temperatures are forecast to easily reach the 90s and even the 100s
(particularly the Mojave and Lower Colorado Basin) each day. Note that
searing heat is also on tap from South Texas on east through southern
Louisiana. Spotty Heat Advisories are in effect over West Texas while
HeatRisk depicts widespread Major Impacts (heat that effects anyone
without effective cooling/hydration) from the Rio Grande Valley on east
through the Houston metropolitan area and into southern Louisiana through
Monday.
Mullinax
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
