Indiana’s Weather For Saturday

HEADLINES
– Some sun this morning.
– Some showers/storms after about 4pm into evening.
– Sunday trending drier.
– Early Monday morning showers and storms.

TODAY’S MAP

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Any fog/stratus should mix out during the morning, but overall
partly to mostly cloudy conditions look to persist during the
morning. With the area in between systems, the morning should be
dry.

Forcing from an initial upper wave will move in this afternoon.
Initially, forcing will be just be enough for isolated to scattered
convection. By the end of the afternoon, forcing should be enough
for numerous showers and scattered storms across the southwest half
or so of the area (closer to the better forcing from the wave).
Elsewhere, scattered showers/isolated storms will continue.

Best instability and shear look to remain south of central Indiana,
so do not expect severe weather at this time.

With expected cloud cover today, highs in the upper 70s to around 80
look reasonable.

Tonight...

Another upper wave, this one farther north, will move into the area.
A surface wave will accompany it. Plentiful moisture will accompany
these features. This will lead to rain across central Indiana during
the night. Will go likely category or higher PoPs all areas.

There looks to be a period of prolonged convergence across northern
portions of central Indiana during the night, with perhaps some
frontogenetical forcing aloft. This may result in some localized
heavy rain across portions of the northern forecast area.

HREF Local Probability Matched Mean QPF totals show this potential
as well, with amounts over 3 inches shown in isolated areas. Will
mention a heavy rain threat tonight.

Instability and shear will continue to be low enough that severe
storms are not expected. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Sunday Through Tuesday.

A stronger upper level low will sink southeastward in the aftermath
of the Saturday system which will bring cooler air and renewed
lighter rain late Sunday into Monday. There is some model
differences towards Monday as to where the jet stream will set up
which will impact where the better chances of precipitation will be.
Models have shifted the axis a bit further north with a southwest to
northeast orientation where isentropic lift should bring a swath of
0.25 to 0.75 inches of precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Poor
lapse rates and weak shear aloft will limit the severe weather
potential, but with some DCAPE, can`t rule out an isolated damaging
wind gust.

Broad northwesterly flow aloft will dominate the weather pattern for
Tuesday as the aforementioned low pressure system slowly exits the
Great Lakes region. Outside of an isolate drain shower across the
southern counties, conditions will remain dry and cool through the
night.

Wednesday Through Friday.

The upper level low will spin across the Great Lakes region into the
middle of the week which will help to keep temperatures slightly
below normal with higher than normal cloud cover. Periodic rain will
impact central Indiana but with no connection to Gulf air, amounts
will be light. High pressure begins to build going into Thursday as
the upper level low finally pushes off to the east with weak surface
winds and gradually warming temperatures to finish the work week.
Looking towards the weekend and beyond, the pattern begins to shift
more active again with above normal precipitation likely.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT