HEADLINES
– Morning fog, and maybe an afternoon storm south of I-70. Small severe risk.
– Scattered showers and storms Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
– One more round after midnight Sunday night into Monday morning.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Fog/stratus will gradually mix out during the early to mid morning. Scattered to broken cumulus will then be around. Will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy. With the old surface boundary across the southern forecast area, wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated shower develop. Will have some low PoPs there. Enough sunshine will be around for highs to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s most areas. Mid Afternoon into Tonight... Another impulse will move east in the nearly zonal flow aloft. This will bring forcing and will interact with the old boundary across southern Indiana to produce scattered to numerous showers and some storms, mainly across the southern half of central Indiana. There remain some timing questions with this wave, but at the moment it appears that late afternoon into early evening look to have the most coverage of rain, mainly south. Will have chance to likely PoPs south, with lower to no PoPs north. Shear will increase during the day across the south and will become high enough that some isolated severe storms may occur, with damaging winds the primary threat. PoPs will diminish later this evening into the overnight as forcing exits. Lows tonight will be from around 60 to the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Saturday Through Monday. By Saturday morning the front that has brought active weather to the area over the last few days will continue to remain stalled south of the forecast area across Kentucky. This should help to limit the rain chances across much of central Indiana with most models keeping any QPF limited to just the southern portions of central Indiana through the morning hours. Another upper level low is expected to move through central Indiana Saturday night with additional thunderstorms likely ahead of the low Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the low, stronger southerly flow will return as a surface low undergoes cyclogenesis with good model agreement in a period of heavy rain during the 00Z to 06Z timeframe just ahead of the low. Model QPF varies on the exact details but a broad 0.5 to 1.5 inches is likely with a narrower swath of 2-3 inches. A stronger upper level low will sink southeastward in the aftermath of the Saturday system which will bring cooler air and renewed lighter rain Sunday into Monday. There is some model differences towards Monday as to where the jet stream will set up which will impact where the better chances of precipitation will be. Confidence is highest across the southern counties with ensemble probabilities maximized towards the Ohio River. Tuesday Through Thursday. The upper level low will spin across the Great Lakes region into the middle of the week which will help to keep temperatures slightly below normal with higher than normal cloud cover. Periodic rain will impact central Indiana but with no connection to Gulf air, amounts will be light. High pressure begins to build going into Thursday as the upper level low finally pushes off to the east with weak surface winds and gradually warming temperatures to finish the work week. Looking towards the weekend and beyond, the pattern begins to shift more active again with above normal precipitation likely.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly to partly cloudy, with fog and drizzle in the morning and midday. Showers and storms possible south and east of Indy in the afternoon. High 80.
Tonight: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 63.
Saturday: Partly sunny morning, with less humidity. Scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. High 80.
Saturday Night: Scattered showers and storms. Low 64.
Sunday: Mostly to partly cloudy, with scattered showers and storms in the morning. High 79.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Low 62.
Monday: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning. High 78.
Monday Night; Partly cloudy. Low 58.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 76.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 57.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 81.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low 60.
Thursday: Sunny. High 82.
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