…Heavy showers and severe thunderstorms are expected to impact portions
of the central and southern Plains through tonight which will include a
threat for flash flooding…
…A broad threat of heavy showers and severe thunderstorms will exist
across the central and southern High Plains Friday into Saturday,
including areas well off to the east into the Mid-South and Tennessee
Valley…
…Tropical moisture associated with a low pressure system over the
southern Mid-Atlantic region will bring a threat of heavy rainfall to the
Carolinas through this evening…
An upper-level trough continues to weaken and shear out across the
southern Plains region, but will continue to interact with a frontal zone
draped across the region. This will set the stage for additional heavy
showers and locally severe thunderstorms to impact portions of the central
and southern Plains going through tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has
depicted a couple of Enhanced Risk areas (level 3/5) across portions of
far southeast CO, southwest KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles. Additionally, an
Enhanced Risk area is depicted across southeast NM and into adjacent areas
of southwest to west-central TX. Concerns will exist across all of these
areas for thunderstorms to be capable of producing very large hail, strong
damaging winds and tornadoes going through this evening and into the
overnight hours. Aside from the severe weather threat, isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible from the heavy
rainfall, and the Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall across portions of southern KS and much
of central and northern OK going into Friday morning. Isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible elsewhere this evening and tonight across
western TX and into some portions of the Southwest where moisture and
instability will be in place.
This same front is forecast to extend well off to the east across the OH
Valley and gradually the Northeast U.S. going through the end of the week
and into the first part of the weekend which will set the stage for an
active pattern for heavy showers and thunderstorms. This will be
facilitated further by multiple waves of low pressure which will be
traversing the front, and each wave of low pressure should tend to be an
active focus for areas of potentially severe weather and flash flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center have highlighted
Slight Risks of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall respectively
on Friday into Saturday stretching from the southern Plains east down
across the Mid-South and adjacent areas of the Tennessee Valley. This will
include locally strong damaging winds, large hail and potentially a couple
of tornadoes. However, a few inches of rainfall may also locally accompany
some of the severe weather hazards which will introduce a threat for
scattered areas of flash flooding.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure impacting portions of the Carolinas
will gradually shift eastward toward the coast by early Friday and then
begin to edge offshore by late Friday. However, areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be accompanying this which may result in a few inches
of rainfall tonight into early Friday. This may result in at least some
isolated areas of flash flooding.
Behind the aforementioned frontal zone draping from the southern Plains to
the OH Valley and Northeast, an elongated area of high pressure will allow
for dry weather, with temperatures generally below normal. Some of the
cooler temperature anomalies will be focused over the central Plains where
temperatures on Friday will be as much as 10 to 15 degree below normal.
Modestly below normal temperatures will be noted farther east through
Saturday across the Midwest. Much above average temperatures are forecast
to develop across much of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin by this
weekend, with high temperatures that will locally be well into the 90s and
as much as 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Some of the interior deserts of
the Southwest will also see high temperatures as high as 105 to 115
degrees.
Orrison
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
