Indiana’s Weather For Thursday

RAINFALL TOTALS MIDNIGHT-8AM
– .99″ Indianapolis
– .81″ Eagle Creek Airport
– .78″ Muncie
– .46″ Lafayette

SEVERE RISK S/SE OF INDY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TODAY’S MAP

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Going into the morning hours today the front that brought widespread
thunderstorms to central Indiana during the overnight will continue
its slow movement to the southeast but is not expected to move much
today with the parent upper level system weakening. Convection this
morning will mostly be focused on the southern portions of central
Indiana with some elevated showers and storms to the north.  There
will be little temperature difference on either side of the front
with highs generally ranging from the mid to upper 70s across north
central Indiana to around 80 in the south.

Skies will remain cloudy through the day with model soundings
showing near moist adiabatic lapse rates and saturation through much
of the column. Rain coverage will gradually decrease through the
morning with a brief uptick in the afternoon as models show some
instability during peak heating which will bring a return to more
widespread thunderstorms. With the weak lapse rates and meager
instability, not expecting any severe storms, but there will be just
enough DCAPE for an isolated stronger wind gust through the evening.

Tonight.

Rain coverage will decrease through the night with the stalling
front gradually sinking south of the forecast area by 09Z. Winds
will be dropping to near calm towards daybreak tomorrow which
combined with the residual surface moisture could bring some patchy
dense fog to the area. Cloud cover will help to limit the coverage
of the densest fog, but models are beginning to show the potential
for fog, especially across the southern counties where the rainfall
will be more widespread today. Dewpoints will be gradually falling
through the night with the loss of surface moisture advection which
will help to bring slightly cooler overnight lows in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

An unsettled pattern will continue into the first part of
the extended period as a frontal boundary meanders over the region
and is blocked by a strong surface ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will impact the Ohio Valley
through at least late Friday night before the front shifts south.
Relatively weak deep layer shear and poor lapse rates will limit but
not completely remove the severe risk in a moderately unstable
environment Friday afternoon and evening.

The most likely scenario will be a messy multicellular convective
mode pulsing in intensity with localized damaging winds and perhaps
large hail with the strongest cells as cores collapse. The greatest
potential for isolated strong to severe storms should be focused
south of I-70 where stronger instability and effective shear will
reside. The main impacts from storms though will be the potential
for locally heavy rain and flooding as PWATs climb to 1.75 to 2
inches and storms are likely slow movers with weak wind flow aloft.

Latest guidance suggest some uncertainty in the potential for
another round of showers and embedded thunder late Saturday into
Saturday night as a wave aloft approaches and aids in developing a
weak surface low. Deeper Gulf moisture should be displaced south of
central Indiana by early Saturday before potentially shifting back
north into the evening. Extended model guidance continues to show
discrepancies regarding the intensity of the upper level wave and
overall moisture return ahead of it. There is a plausible scenario
where much of the deepest moisture and instability and consequently
the bulk of the convection remain to the southwest focused over the
lower Ohio Valley. Maintaining low chances for precipitation
Saturday and Saturday night using a blended approach for these
reasons. Expect rain chances to be refined once models become better
aligned.

Sporadic precip chances will persist Sunday and Monday with a
stronger upper low and surface wave across the northern Great Lakes.
A large area of high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley with
dry and seasonable conditions beginning Tuesday and continuing for
much of the rest of next week. (Via NWS Indianapolis.)

INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Periods of showers and storms. High 78.

Tonight: Scattered showers and storms. Low 66.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers in the morning and midday. Showers and storms possible south and east of Indy in the afternoon. High 79.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 62.

Saturday: Mostly sunny morning. Less humid. Partly sunny in the afternoon, with a shower possible south of Indy. High 79.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Spotty showers after sunset. Low 59.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 79.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers. Low 60.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning. High 77.

Monday Night; Partly cloudy. Low 57.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 76.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 57.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 80.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT