…Heavy showers and thunderstorms will drive a threat for scattered areas
of flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the southern
Plains through tonight and Thursday…
…A threat for severe weather will exist across the southern Plains on
Thursday, and as far east as the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday…
…A low pressure system developing over the interior of the Southeast may
result in some heavy rainfall here along with some localized potential for
flash flooding…
A storm system traversing the Southwest U.S. will continue to favor a
regional threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms through tonight which
may bring sufficient rainfall for at least scattered areas of flash
flooding. This will include potential impacts to some of the area burn
scar locations, local slot canyon areas, and also the normally dry washes.
Up to a couple inches of new rainfall will be possible by early Thursday
morning, and the Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall (level 2/4) across portions of southern Utah, northern
Arizona, northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado.
This same storm system will then eject east out into the central and
southern Plains by later Thursday where it will begin to interact with a
frontal zone that is already draped from the southern Plains northeastward
up across the Ohio Valley. This frontal zone will generally remain in
place over the next couple of days and will allow for multiple waves of
low pressure to ride northeast up along it. This will drive broken
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms which will drive additional
concerns for some flash flooding, but also severe weather.
The greatest threat for severe weather should tend to be over the southern
High Plains from eastern New Mexico into portions of Oklahoma and Texas
going through Thursday where the Storm Prediction Center has depicted a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms. A threat of large hail,
damaging winds and potentially a few tornadoes will exist, and especially
Thursday afternoon and evening. On Friday, this threat of severe weather
will extent well off to the east and extend from the southern Plains east
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where a broad Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms is now depicted.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next
day or so across the interior of the Southeast which will move slowly
across portions of the eastern Carolinas and eventually offshore of the
Virginia Capes by Friday night. Tropical moisture lifting northward in
association with this will bring a threat of heavy rainfall and isolated
to scattered areas of flash flooding. A few inches of rainfall is
generally expected across the coastal plain.
Behind the aforementioned frontal zone draping from the southern Plains,
Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast, temperatures will generally be
below normal with highs especially over portions of the Plains running as
much as 10 to 20 degrees below average for early June. Temperatures will
also be below normal over portions of the Southwest and the Southeast U.S.
where extensive cloud cover and areas of heavy rain will keep temperatures
cooler. Much above average temperatures are forecast for the Northeast
U.S. ahead of the front where some high temperatures may reach over 90s on
Thursday. Very warm to locally hot temperatures are also expected by
Friday across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Great Basin.
Orrison
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
