…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms across the Southern Plains weaken
today but the next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected to impact
the south-central U.S. beginning Thursday night…
…Heavy showers and thunderstorms, as well as the potential for scattered
flash flooding, are expected across the Four Corners into the
central/southern High Plains…
…Tropical moisture across South Florida is forecast to spread further up
the Florida Peninsula and into the coastal Southeast…
A cold front extending from Texas through the Great Lakes has been the
focus of widespread strong to severe thunderstorms marching eastward
across the mid-section of the country. The dynamics associated with the
front are forecast to weaken today, resulting in significant lessening of
the threat of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms by the time the front
moves further into the Midwest and the lower Great Lakes later today. The
next weather maker will be associated with another upper-level trough/low
currently moving onshore near the California-Mexico border. Upper-level
dynamics ahead of this system have already triggered clusters of heavy
showers and thunderstorms early this morning from southern Carlifornia
through northern Arizona and northern New Mexico. This system will head
further eastward and begin to interact with the frontal system that has
stalled over the Southern Plains. This will result in rounds of showers
and thunderstorms developing across the central and southern High Plains
by tonight. These activities will become heavier and more frequent as the
upper low moves closer. By Thursday night into Friday morning, a low
pressure wave is forecast to form over the southern High Plains and then
track eastward, setting the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rain
and strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the south-central U.S.
beginning Thursday night.
Meanwhile, tropical moisture that has already brought heavy rain across
South Florida in the vicinity of a stalled front will continue to interact
with an upper-level trough over the northeastern Gulf. This interaction
will lift the core of the tropical moisture northward, leading to the
threat of heavy rain spreading up the Florida Peninsula for the remainder
of today, especially across South Florida. The upper trough will then
interact with a coastal front and develop a surface low pressure area.
This low is forecast to track further up the coast of the southeastern
U.S. on Thursday, and the center could reach the eastern shores of North
Carolina by Friday morning. While the bulk of the heaviest rainfall
associated with this system should remain just offshore, a couple inches
of rain can be expected to fall along coastal Carolinas, and especially
along the immediate coast where higher amounts are possible through Friday
morning. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the
possibility for this system to organize and develop subtropical or
tropical characteristics near/off the coast of the Southeast U.S. through
the next couple of days.
Behind a cold front sagging southward across the Plains, temperatures will
be around 10-20 degrees below average for early June. Temperatures in the
60s and 70s will be commonplace for the heart of the nation. While
temperatures cool across the mid-section of the country, the opposite will
occur along the East coast. The recent prolonged period of below average
temperatures will be replaced by an increasing area of above average
temperatures from the mid- to lower Mississippi Valley, east into nearly
all of the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds across these
regions. High temperatures will range around 10-15 degrees above average
and will reach the upper 80s to even the low 90s for region in the
Northeast by the end of the week. The exception to the above average
temperatures in the East will be across Florida and the coastal Southeast
where temperatures will be below average due to the presence of tropical
moisture under the developing low pressure system.
Kong/Wilder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
