Indiana’s Weather For Today

HEADLINES
– Highs in the mid to upper 80s again today. Storms late evening and overnight.
– Severe weather unlikely, but an inch of rain possible.
– Some storms Thursday, some showers Friday.
– Showers south of Indy Saturday afternoon.

TODAY’S MAP

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

The shift into a more active pattern will continue today with
convection ongoing across much of Missouri and Illinois associated
with a broad and slow moving frontal system. Ridging across the
Eastern US continues to slow the eastern progression of the front
which will keep much of central Indiana dry through the daytime
hours, but models are increasingly converging on convection arriving
in the northwestern counties towards 00Z with storms otherwise
generally staying to the north of west through much of the
afternoon.

Strong pressure gradients between the ridge to the east and the low
to the northwest will bring a return to breezy conditions this
afternoon with occasional wind gusts to as high as 30 mph. Smoke
concentrations aloft will be gradually decreasing through the day,
so will be tapering down the haze wording and with the increasing
clouds ahead of the precipitation, much of this upper level smoke
may go unnoticed.

Tonight.

The more active weather of the period will occur tonight as the
aforementioned slow moving front pushes into northwestern Indiana.
Will gradually increase POPs after 00Z to with scattered to numerous
thunderstorm wording after 03Z. Soundings show little instability
due to the nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates which combined with
the less than idea diurnal timing of convection should limit the
overall severe weather threat.

Small hail and plenty of lightning looks likely with the elevated
nature of the convection, especially after 04Z when the near surface
inversion sets in. There will be some training of convection which
increases the flooding threat, but expect there to be just enough
eastward movement to limit the higher-end flooding potential with
rain amounts generally between 1-1.5 inches in the swath of heaviest
rain with amounts closer to a half inch across the southeastern
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A messy and unsettled pattern returns for the tail end of this
week as a frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary over the region
as it becomes parallel to the southwest flow aloft and is blocked by
a strong surface ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast. Periodic showers
and thunderstorms will impact the Ohio Valley into early Saturday
before the front finally shifts south into the Tennessee Valley in
response to a transition to northwest flow in the mid and upper
levels and weak high pressure at the surface.

Additional convective chances arrive for early next week as strong
low pressure moving north of the Great Lakes pulls a cold front
through the region. Once the front passes...a large area of high
pressure will build into the Ohio Valley with dry and seasonable
conditions for the middle part of next week.

Thursday through Saturday

Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning with the front bisecting
the forecast area. Expect an overall diminishing to precip coverage
into the afternoon as the boundary drifts south and 850mb flow
weakens. The presence of the front over the region combined with a
series of waves aloft traversing through the southwest flow aloft
will provide additional opportunities for convection later Thursday
afternoon and evening and then again Friday afternoon and night.

Overall stagnant conditions aloft with minimal BL shear and poor
lapse rates will limit but not completely remove the severe risk
during peak heating Thursday and Friday in the afternoon and
evening. On both days...the most likely scenario will be a messy
multicellular convective mode pulsing in intensity with localized
damaging winds and perhaps large hail with the strongest cells as
cores collapse. The focus for stronger convection late Thursday will
mirror the location of the boundary which shifts into the southern
half of the forecast area where better instability will reside. By
Friday though...the boundary will lift back north as a surface wave
lifts out of the Ozarks and the isolated severe potential will be
present over most if not the entire forecast area for the afternoon
and evening. DCAPE values peaking at 800-1000 J/KG supportive of
localized damaging winds from collapsing cells. The main impacts
from storms late week though will be the potential for localized
heavy rain and flooding as PWATs climb to 1.75 to 2 inches and
storms are likely slow movers with weak wind flow aloft.

The front will shift south of the Ohio River Saturday morning in the
wake of a stronger wave aloft. A dirty high building south from the
Great Lakes will aid in advecting drier air into the region through
the day but will maintain low pops focused especially across the
southeast half of the forecast area as not certain the high will be
strong enough to fully flush out the deeper low level moisture.

Highs will remain at seasonable levels through the period ranging
from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with increased clouds and
convective coverage.

Saturday Night through Tuesday

The combination of the front pushing into the Deep South and
slightly better subsidence advecting into the region from the north
should finally lead to a short period of dry weather late Saturday
and continuing for much of the day Sunday. Focus though will turn to
a strong upper level low with an associated surface wave dropping
out of the Canadian Prairies on Sunday. An associated cold front
will swing quickly across the Ohio Valley late Sunday into Monday
with convective chances returning. The passage of the front will
also lower temperatures slightly for early next week with mid and
upper 70s for highs Monday and Tuesday.

A large area of high pressure will expand into the region by Tuesday
and likely serves as a prominent influence for much of next week
with dry conditions. As ridging aloft builds in just beyond the 7
day period...highs should steadily rise back into the 80s for the
second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 549 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Impacts:

- Southwesterly wind gusts to 25kts for much of the day
- Convection developing late day at KLAF then this evening into the
  overnight at the other terminals
- Ceiling restrictions at KHUF and KLAF overnight

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected today with a slow increase in cloud coverage
into the afternoon as a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
Southwest wind gusts will peak at near 25kts throughout the day.

Scattered convection will approach KLAF by early evening then
gradually expand east into tonight. Highest confidence in impacts
this evening are at KLAF and eventually at KHUF...but more extensive
coverage is not likely to reach KBMG and KIND until overnight.
Thunderstorms will be more numerous during the evening then decrease
in coverage into the predawn hours Thursday as instability is lost.
Lower MVFR stratus will move into KLAF and KHUF tonight with the
potential for IFR ceilings at KLAF after 04-05Z.

INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Partly sunny, very warm, and a little muggy. Wind gusting to 30 mph. High 86.

Tonight: Scattered showers and storms, especially after midnight. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts. Low 68.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and muggy. Periods of showers and storms. High 78.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and storms. Low 66.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers in the morning and midday. Some sun in the afternoon. High 79.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 62.

Saturday: Mostly sunny morning. Less humid. Partly sunny in the afternoon, with a shower possible south of Indy. High 77.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 59.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with storm chances by afternoon. High 81.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers. Low 63.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning. High 77.

Monday Night; Partly cloudy. Low 58.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT