…Widespread heavy rain is possible across the southern and central
Plains today and the next couple of days…
…Tropical moisture across South Florida is forecast to spread further up
the Florida Peninsula and into the coastal Southeast…
…Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, as well as the potential for
scattered flash flooding, are expected across the Four Corners into the
central/southern High Plains…
The flash flood threat for the rest of this afternoon and evening has
increased across parts of central Kansas as a heavy line of storms is
slowly moving through the area ahead of a cold front present across the
region. The multiple inch rainfall totals observed as of this afternoon
and the high rainfall rates ongoing in the thunderstorms has allowed the
Weather Prediction Center to issue a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall
for most of central Kansas with further flash flood emergencies possible.
Areas from central Texas to Missouri are under a broader Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall through this evening as scattered flash flooding is
also possible along the front. Chances for heavy rain continue along the
boundary further south and east from central Texas to Michigan for
Wednesday with isolated flooding possible. On Thursday, the frontal
boundary should begin to lift northward across the Plains, along with
energy moving in from the west, and refocus a greater threat for storms
and flash flooding. WPC has areas of north Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
with a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall as organizing storms may drop
2-3 inches of rainfall across the region. A Marginal threat for Excessive
Rainfall also remains across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday due
to the slow movement of the cold front. A Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall is also in effect across the Southwest and Four Corners for
Wednesday and Thursday Corner as energy along a stationary boundary
sparks locally heavy afternoon thunderstorms capable of bringing isolated
flooding to sensitive terrain.
For severe weather, a Marginal Risk for severe weather has been issued by
the Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday across the eastern Midwest and
across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. The Midwest can expect
wind, some damaging gusts are possible, and isolated large hail to be the
main hazards. The Southwest and southern Plains can also expect large hail
and damaging wind gusts with supercells that do develop. On Thursday,
energy from the West and favorable dynamics, is likely to trigger another
round of sever weather across the southern Plains. SPC has issued a Slight
Risk to demarcate the storm threat/level. A line of storms is also
expected across the Northeast along the cold front and a few strong wind
gusts are likely to persist.
Meanwhile, tropical moisture that has already brought heavy rain across
South Florida in the vicinity of a stalled front will continue to interact
with an upper-level trough moving into the northeastern Gulf. This
interaction will lift the core of the tropical moisture northward, leading
to the threat of heavy rain spreading up the Florida Peninsula for the
remainder of today, especially across South Florida. Widespread tropical
showers and storms are likely for tomorrow and have the potential to drop
a quick 1-2 inches where marginal flooding could be possible. An area of
low pressure then moves northward towards the Carolina and Georgia coast
on Thursday and bring locally heavy rain and moisture to parts of the
Southeast. It is worth mentioning that the National Hurricane Center is
monitoring the possibility for this system to organize and develop
subtropical or tropical characteristics off the coast of the Southeast
U.S. through the next couple of days.
Behind a cold front sagging southward across the Plains, temperatures will
be around 10-20 degrees below average for early June. Temperatures in the
60s and 70s will be commonplace for the heart of the nation. While
temperatures cool across the mid-section of the country, the opposite will
occur along the East coast. The recent prolonged period of below average
temperatures will be replaced by an increasing area of above average
temperatures from the mid- to lower Mississippi Valley, east into nearly
all of the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds across these
regions. High temperatures will range around 10-15 degrees above average
and will reach the upper 80s to even the low 90s for region in the
Northeast by the end of the week. The exception to the above average
temperatures in the East will be across Florida and the coastal Southeast
where temperatures will be below average due to the presence of tropical
moisture under the upper-level low.
Wilder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
