…Widespread heavy rain and severe weather threats across the mid-section
of the nation today will gradually shift eastward and lose intensity over
the next couple of days…
…Tropical moisture across South Florida is forecast to spread further up
the Florida Peninsula and into the coastal Southeast…
…Renewed round of showers and thunderstorms expected to move across the
Four Corners into the central/southern High Plains…
…Much cooler weather settles into the Central U.S., while the East warms
up…
The widespread active and severe weather currently affecting the
mid-section of the country is forecast to lose some intensity as the
associated frontal system gradually weakens with time. The front is still
quite potent this morning as it forces its way down the central Plains and
interacts with moisture associated with a lifting upper-level trough. The
heaviest rain and most potent thunderstorms will be impacting much of the
central Plains this morning. As the last in a series of low pressure
waves traveling along the front heads further northeast later today,
thunderstorms are expected to organize farther to the east and southeast
from Oklahoma through Missouri into Illinois by tonight, where high winds
and large hail will be the greatest severe weather threat here, with a
lesser threat of tornadoes. By Wednesday, the front is forecast to weaken
as it pushes farther to the east during the next couple of days. The
associated showers and thunderstorms are expected to be much less intense
and more scattered as they move across the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley
later on Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Another upper trough currently dipping off the coast of California will
bring a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners
into the central/southern High Plains from Wednesday into Thursday,
raising flash flooding chances over areas with terrain-enhanced rainfall
and burn scars in the aforementioned areas.
Meanwhile, tropical moisture that has already brought heavy rain across
South Florida in the vicinity of a stalled front will continue to interact
with an upper-level trough moving into the northeastern Gulf. This
interaction will lift the core of the tropical moisture northward, leading
to the threat of heavy rain spreading up the Florida Peninsula today and
into Wednesday morning when localized flooding is possible, especially
across urbanized areas. This rain episode will be much welcomed as this
region remains in severe to extreme drought conditions. The National
Hurricane Center is monitoring the possibility for this system to organize
and develop subtropical or tropical characteristics off the coast of the
Southeast U.S. through the next couple of days.
While temperatures cool across the mid-section of the country, the
opposite will occur along the East coast. The recent prolonged period of
below average temperatures will be replaced by an increasing area of above
average temperatures from the mid- to lower Mississippi Valley, east into
nearly all of the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds across these
regions. The exception to the above average temperatures in the East will
be across Florida and the coastal Southeast where temperatures will be
below average due to the presence of tropical moisture under the
upper-level low.
Kong/Oravec
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
