The Nation’s Weather

…Warming trend for the East, while much cooler temperatures spread from
the Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains…

…Heavy rains possible across the Southwest Sunday night into Monday and
across Central to South Florida through Tuesday…

…Widespread heavy rain/flooding threat developing from the Southern to
Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley…

Significant changes to the large scale flow pattern expected over the next
few days, with very active heavy rain potential in several sections of the
nation. The deep upper trof that has kept temperatures well below average
over the past several days across the eastern U.S., will be pushing off
the East coast late Monday into Tuesday. This will be replaced by a
building upper ridge and support much warmer temperatures for the early
and middle part of the new week for most areas to the east of the
Mississippi river.

The building upper ridge across the East will be the northern component of
a developing rex block along the east coast. The southern portion of this
block will be comprised of a developing upper low across the central to
eastern Gulf and Florida. This upper low, and a stationary frontal
boundary at the surface across central Florida will support heavy rain
potential for central to southern Florida over the next few days. Much of
Florida is coming out of the dry season with severe to extreme drought
conditions, with the upcoming heavy rain potential much welcomed
hydrologically. This heavy rain potential will also pose a flooding
threat, primarily in the urbanized areas of central to southern Florida
over the next few days.

Across the middle portion of the nation, big temperature changes also on
tap with much cooler temperatures developing from the Rockies into the
Plains over the next few days. This will be in response to a strong cold
front pushing east into the Northern Plains tonight and Monday, southward
into the Central Plains by early Tuesday and into the Southern Plains by
Wednesday. This front will be the focus for an expanding area of heavy
rains as above average moisture values from the sub-tropical eastern
Pacific are drawn northeastward along this frontal boundary. This
northeastward push of above average moisture values will initially produce
heavy rains and localized flooding threats from late Sunday afternoon into
Monday across the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin and Southern to
Central Rockies. This above average moisture will then stream
northeastward along the above mentioned strong front, supporting an
expanding area of heavy rain potential late Monday through Tuesday across
the Central to Southern Plains. These heavy rains will bring some drought
relief to portions of the Central Plains and additional heavy rains over
the Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley that have seen much
above average precipitation over the past month. The heavy rain threat
across the Central to Southern Plains will also be accompanied by an
increasing severe weather threat, with high winds and large hail the
greatest severe weather threat, with a lesser threat of tornadoes.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php