The Nation’s Weather

…Unsettled weather containing chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall to continue across much of the south-central United States,
Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic…

…Building early summer heat to begin impacting much of the West by
midweek…

With Memorial Day 2025 now in the rear-view mirror, the weather pattern
for the final week of May features continued widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances spanning from the central/southern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic. Two separate areas of low pressure pushing northeast (one
currently over the Tennessee Valley and the other along the Southeast
coastline) are expected to spread rainfall into the Mid-Atlantic tonight
and eventually the Northeast by Thursday morning. Meanwhile, thunderstorm
activity continuing along a stalled out frontal boundary stretching from
the Southeast to the southern Plains will focus the potential for some
storms to turn severe and contain intense rainfall rates. Specifically,
the severe weather and excessive rainfall outlooks highlight
western/south-central Texas as well as the Southeast as having the
greatest chances for strong storms and instances of flash flooding through
early Wednesday.

By Wednesday and Thursday, continued shower activity is forecast across
the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and spreading into parts of the Great Lakes.
Thunderstorms are likely to the south as increased levels of atmospheric
moisture content combine with warmer temperatures and elevated levels of
instability. An area of low pressure developing across the central High
Plains and swinging eastward across the Ozarks by Thursday will help lift
a warm front through the southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley, which
will help spark a cluster of thunderstorms traversing the region. Storms
across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles as well as West Texas may contain
damaging wind gusts and large hail on Wednesday. As this system continues
to push eastward on Thursday it will squeeze the best chances for intense
rainfall to the Southeast and central Gulf Coast, where a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive rainfall has been issued.

Due to the cloudy, rainy weather throughout the central and eastern U.S.
through midweek, the temperature outlook is fairly cool with widespread
below average temperatures most notable in the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and
central U.S. Thursday. However, the West is expected to tell a different,
more summer-like, story to end the month of May. An anomalous upper ridge
building over western Canada will allow for warmer temperatures to
overspread the northern/central Great Basin and into the northern High
Plains by midweek before the pattern truly amplifies by Friday and propels
for more extreme heat into California and the remainder of the western
United States. Sticking with Wednesday and Thursday for now, not really an
expectation for numerous daily records, but highs are forecast to reach
into the 80s and 90s for much of the region. Meanwhile, low triple digits
are forecast for the typically hot Southwest Desert locations over the
next few days. Be sure to plan ahead and follow proper heat safety this
week as early-season heat waves can be particularly dangerous!

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php