Indiana’s Weather For Tuesday

HEADLINES
– Scattered showers today and tomorrow. No heavy rain, no big storms.
– Temps finally go to near and above average starting Thursday.
– One more round of rain later Friday; weekend looks dry and warm.

TODAY’S MAP

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A mid level low will pass to the east throughout the day providing
scattered to numerous showers of the area. Deeper moisture and
modest convergent lift west of the low pressure center is expected
to push into the area this morning through the evening. There is
some dry air that will linger into the morning hours, of which
should lead to a delay in precipitation onset. However, continued
expansion north of rain coverage will eventually eat away at that
dry layer leading to at minimum isolated shower coverage over E
central Indian by late morning. This low will slowly deepen
throughout the day, allowing for better lift in the afternoon and
evening, mainly over eastern portion of the forecast area. This
should lead to a coverage gradient across central Indiana in the
afternoon and evening (numerous in the east, to isolated in the
west).

There is a non-zero thunder threat this afternoon and
evening, but lapse rates are barely greater that the moist adiabat
and without any strong thermal cooling strong updraft needed to
create lighting will be tough to create. Generally temperature will
remain similar today aside from easter Indiana where greater
cloud/rain coverage will likely suppress temperature gains
significantly.

Rain is expected to slowly decrease overnight into tomorrow as weak
ridging builds in from the southwest. Still, with an upper level
trough remaining to the northwest, cloud cover is likely to stick
around for a majority of the night. Weak winds and scattered
breaks cloud cover over SE Indiana could lead to some fog
development where latent heat fluxes will be greatest.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)…
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025

Weak ridging will begin early Wednesday, but will quickly be
displaced by height falls east of a very slow moving upper level
trough. This trough will once again allow for weak lift and shower
development in the afternoon and evening. The added low level warmth
from weak subsidence Tuesday night into Wednesday morning may be
enough for a more convective looking day of scattered showers, with
some potential for enough instability to initiate isolated
thunderstorms.

Indiana is expected to be in a similar synoptic setup Thursday, with
additional light rain showers before a stronger surface low will
track through the Ohio Valley for late week ahead of the
aforementioned upper trough. Ensemble members are still widely
spread on where low level pressure development will occur, likely
due to the lack of amplified forcing aloft. For now 15-40% PoPs have
been added across most of central Indiana to showcase the high
uncertainty surrounding precipitation placement late week, despite
high confidence in lift within the Ohio Valley.

Low level thermals support a slow but steady warmup back to near
seasonable levels by the weekend with mid and upper 70s returning.
Even warmer temperatures are expected by early next week as the
upper trough finally moves away and is replaced by ridging aloft.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)…
Issued at 632 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025

Impacts:

– MVFR ceilings developing by this afternoon with scattered
showers

Discussion:

This morning, ceilings will lower from south to north, with MVFR
ceilings moving in around 15Z to 18Z. MVFR ceilings will then
continue through the remainder of the period. Some guidance is
showing IFR ceilings developing after 19Z at KBMG/KIND, but
current belief is this is overdone.

Scattered showers will develop throughout the day, with highest
coverage expected near KIND/KBMG. These should be light enough to
avoid VIS restrictions, but a few 5-6SM pockets is possible

Overnight, winds will shift to the NW. Isolated showers may stick
around at KLAF with MVFR ceilings. There is a low chance for
clouds to scatter at KBMG late tonight. If this does occur, BCFG
may develop tomorrow morning.

INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
#: Indianapolis Forecast#
Today: Cloudy, with mainly afternoon scattered showers. High 68.

Tonight: Cloudy, with scattered showers. Low 57.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, especially in the morning. High 72.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 55.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 75.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 55.

Friday: Partly sunny. Later afternoon showers possible. High 75.

Friday Night: Scattered showers possible. Low 60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 79.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 55.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 80.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low 58.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 84.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT