The Nation’s Weather

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys on Monday and over the
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, and Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachians on Tuesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and Tuesday…

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Southeast to the Southern
Plains and Central Rockies will have a wave of low pressure move into the
Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Moisture flowing northward out of the Gulf of
America will overrun the boundary, creating showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of these areas through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of
hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Southern Plains.

Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central
Plains into the Northern Rockies on Monday.

On Tuesday, the stationary front starts to move southeastward over the
Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, producing severe
thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over two areas: the first area over the Southern
Plains and the second over the Lower Mississippi Valley from Tuesday
through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an increased risk of hail,
two inches or greater, over parts of the Southern Plains.

Moreover, the threat of excessive rainfall will extend along the front
from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over two areas, the Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast Tuesday
through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, as the wave of low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley,
showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over the Ohio Valley and
Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley and Central
Appalachians from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, the wave of low pressure will produce rain over parts of the
Upper Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday into
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over the Southeast.

Meanwhile, a front over the Pacific Northwest on Monday moves inland to
the Northern Rockies and dissipates overnight Tuesday. The system will
produce light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Monday morning
and into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region by late Monday evening
and end over the Northwest overnight Monday. On Tuesday, the rain will
move slowly into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains. Furthermore, an
upper-level low will develop over the Upper Midwest Monday evening into
Wednesday, creating light rain over parts of the Upper Midwest.

Elsewhere, lingering upper-level energy over the Northeast will produce
scattered rain and showers over parts of the Northeast through late
Monday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php