The Nation’s Weather

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys on Monday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Sunday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Monday…

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Southeast to the Southern
Plains and Central Rockies will remain through Tuesday. Moisture flowing
northward out of the Gulf of America will overrun the boundary, creating
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning.
Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may
flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Furthermore, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the
Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail, two inches or
greater, over the Southern Plains.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

On Monday, the risk of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain continues
over parts of the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the
Tennessee Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of these areas from Monday through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Likewise, severe thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southern
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Monday through
Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or
greater, over parts of the region.

Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday into Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a front approaches the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, moving
inland to the Northern Rockies/Northern Intermountain Region and into
parts of the Great Basin by Tuesday. The system will produce light rain
over parts of the Pacific Northwest Sunday evening into Monday. On Monday,
the rain will move slowly into the Northern Rockies/Northern Intermountain
Region and end over the Northwest. Furthermore, an upper-level low will
develop over the Upper Midwest Monday evening into Tuesday, creating light
rain over parts of the Northern Plains.

Elsewhere, upper-level energy over the Northeast will produce scattered
rain and showers over the Northeast through late Monday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php