The Nation’s Weather

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on
Saturday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on
Sunday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys, and the
Tennessee Valley on Saturday and Sunday…

Upper-level energy extending from the Great Lakes to Northern New England
will slowly move into Southeastern Canada by Sunday. Additional
upper-level energy will move over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast
on Sunday into Monday. The system will produce scattered rain and showers
over the Northeast into the Great Lakes, ending by Monday.

Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary front extending from the Southeast
northwestward to the Southern Plains and Central Rockies will remain
through Monday. Moisture flowing northward out of the Gulf of America will
overrun the boundary, creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, there is a risk of the showers and thunderstorms being
severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley through Sunday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an
increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over the Southern Plains.

The threat of excessive rainfall increases on Sunday as moisture continues
to flow northward over the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, producing showers and
thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday
into Monday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In
addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Moreover, there is a risk of the showers and thunderstorms being severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley from Sunday through Monday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over
parts of the Southern High Plains.

Further, upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern/Central Rockies into the Northern Plains through
late Saturday night.

Elsewhere, a front approaches the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, moving
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region and then to Northern
California by Monday. The system will produce light rain over parts of the
Pacific Northwest Sunday evening into Monday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php