…Severe weather potential in Southern Plains today; cold and rainy in
the Northeast…
…Above average temperatures across southern tier states and West; below
average temperatures from Northern Plains to Northeast/Mid-Atlantic…
A relatively stagnant upper pattern with troughing along the coasts and
ridging over the Central U.S. will persist through the end of the week.
Low pressure in the East will produce cool and rainy weather from the Ohio
Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. Some isolated thunderstorms could
produce excessive rainfall over portions of southern New England today but
that threat is marginal. A surface low pressure system an attendant
quasi-stationary front draped across northern Texas/Oklahoma will be the
focus for potential severe storms this afternoon and evening. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe
thunderstorms across much of the Red River Valley where large hail will be
the main threat, along with damaging winds. 2+ inch diameter hail are
possible according to SPC. There’s another Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms in northeast Colorado, southeast Nebraska and northwest
Kansas where the northern extension of the Southern Plains stationary
front and a dry line will focus storms on Friday. Large hail and severe
wind gusts will be the primary threats associated with storms that
materialize.
Rainfall aside, an upper low parked over the Great Lakes and Northeast
will facilitate cooler temperatures across the Northern Plains, Midwest,
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. High temperatures in
the 40s, 50s and low 60s will represent temperature anomalies between
20-35 degrees below average. Widespread low maximum temperature records
may be tied or broken from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
today and Friday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge in the West and central U.S.
will produce above average temperatures across the Southern and Western
U.S.. Some high minimum temperature records may be tied or broken in
Florida. Meanwhile, moderate to locally Major HeatRisk will increase over
south Texas beneath a building upper ridge through the rest of the week.
Kebede
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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