…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio
Valley on Sunday and Monday and from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Ohio Valley…
…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Sunday; there is an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle /Lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday and Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys
on Tuesday…
…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over the Southern
Rockies/Southern High Plains on Sunday and Monday…
A front extending from the Northern/Central Rockies eastward to the
Central Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast will move
eastward to the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Lower Mississippi
Valley by Tuesday. The boundary will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms with an increased threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail,
two inches or greater over parts of the Central/Southern Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Monday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and landslides
on roads.
Moreover, a second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the
Tennessee Valley and Southeast through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
Furthermore, the upper-level energy associated with the front will produce
rain and highest-elevation snow over parts of the Northwest to the
Northern/Central Rockies, with showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains through Monday morning. For Monday, rain and
highest-elevation snow will continue over the Central Rockies, with
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern/Central Plains.
In addition, on Monday, as the front advances eastward, showers and severe
thunderstorms with EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail, two inches or greater
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued
an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and
landslides on roads.
Moreover, on Monday, a second area of showers and severe thunderstorms
will develop slightly farther east over parts of the Tennessee Valley,
Southern Appalachians, and Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Tennessee Valley,
Southern Appalachians, and Southeast from Monday through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
On Tuesday, rain and wet snow will develop over parts of the Northern
Plains as upper-level energy moves east over the region.
Likewise, as the front moves east on Tuesday, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Tennessee/
Lower Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.
Similarly, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and the Central
Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, and the Central Appalachians on Tuesday. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and
landslides on roads.
Meanwhile, on Monday, a third front will move onshore over the Pacific
Northwest and inland to the Northern Rockies/Great Basin by Tuesday
evening. The boundary will produce rain and highest elevation snow over
the Northwest and the Northern Intermountain Region, continuing into
Tuesday evening.
Elsewhere, deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and a
deepening surface low and associated gradient wind response will be
responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions. The
combination of dry air, dry fuels, and gusty winds over the Southern
Rockies prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather over the region on Sunday
and Monday.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
