…Multiday severe weather and flash flooding threat to begin across the
central United States today…
…Summerlike and potentially dangerous heat continues across parts of
South Texas and Florida…
…Critical fire weather conditions forecast across much of southern New
Mexico and West Texas…
A busy mid-May weather pattern is expected to take shape over the next few
days and bring a multitude of hazardous weather to the Lower 48, including
heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, fire weather, and even heavy
mountain snowfall. The storm system responsible for the upcoming active
weather is currently traversing the Intermountain West and spreading
widespread showers and mountain snow to the region, highlighted by Winter
Storm Warnings over parts of Idaho and western Montana for up to a foot of
snowfall today. As this system continues to slide eastward while
strengthening, the precipitation shield will expand throughout the
northern/central Rockies before numerous showers and thunderstorms develop
across the central/southern Plains by this evening. All modes of severe
thunderstorms are possible through tonight across a region spanning from
northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska into much of the central Plains
and as far south as the Concho Valley of Texas. Thunderstorms may contain
large hail and damaging winds, with the greatest threat of tornadoes
located from central Kansas to central Oklahoma, where the Storm
Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe
weather. Additionally, numerous thunderstorm complexes developing along
both a slowly lifting warm from extending from the central Plains to the
Mid-South, as well as dry line located in the southern High Plains will
have the potential to produce intense rainfall rates capable of leading to
instances of flash flooding. As a result, A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued from eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into
the Ozarks of Missouri and Arkansas through early Monday.
Day 2 of this spring storm system is anticipated to spark another round of
widespread strong storms on Monday as as area of low pressure churns over
the central United States and primary atmospheric ingredients reload.
Heavy rainfall is once again expected to blossom throughout the southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, while also expanding northward into
South Dakota. Locally intense rainfall rates are possible from North Texas
into Arkansas, as well as northern Missouri into southern Iowa. Where the
heaviest rainfall does set up and linger for multiple hours, flash
flooding is possible and could become significant should it align over
sensitive terrain and/or urban locations. Thunderstorms are also expected
to once again produce areas of damaging winds and large hail on Monday
throughout a large part of the central/southern Plains and Ozarks, with
the threat of tornadoes also continuing in this region. By Tuesday, this
potent May storm system begins to slide east and shift the dangerous
thunderstorm threat into the Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
Scattered instances of flash flooding and the potential for severe
thunderstorms will remain although shifted east compared to the prior two
days. With widespread severe weather and heavy rainfall forecast it is
paramount to stay weather aware, have multiple ways of receiving warnings,
have a plan should severe storms strike, and remain in communication with
family/friends. For up-to-date local forecasts find your local weather
forecast office at www.weather.gov.
The temperature outlook through early this week continues the theme of
early summer across the Gulf Coast States, with an emphasis on South Texas
and the Florida Peninsula. Here, highs will once again rise into the
mid-to-upper 90s (triple digits in south-central Texas), which could
potentially break daily records along with creating a potentially
situation for those without adequate air conditioning. Elsewhere, below
average temperatures will be found in the Rockies and Northern Tier. Frost
Advisories are widespread this morning throughout the Dakotas and
Minnesota where low temperatures are forecast to dip into the 30s.
Meanwhile, a warming trend is expected to develop across California early
this week as highs begin to enter the 90s in the typically hotter valley
locations.
Critical fire weather conditions are also notable through early this week
across the southern Rockies and into portions of the southern High Plains.
Very low relative humidity, dry vegetation, and gusty winds are forecast
which could lead to the rapid spread of wildfires. Red Flag Warnings have
been issued.
Snell
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
