HEADLINES
– Super Sunday at the Track!
– Showers return Monday.
– Severe risk returns Tuesday.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure in place over the northern plains, with a ridge axis extending south into MO and Arkansas. Aloft, water vapor showed a ridge axis over the high plains with lee side northwest flow aloft streaming across IA, IL and into Indiana. GOES16 shows some stratocu associated with the departing upper low over upstate NY. Light westerly flow was found across central Indiana. Today and Tonight - Dry weather with seasonable temperatures are expected today and tonight. Strong ridging aloft along with the associated surface ridge to the west will be building across Indiana today and passing across the state tonight. This will result in Mostly Sunny skies today, while skies become partly cloudy tonight. Forecast soundings today show a very dry column as compared to yesterday and little to no cumulus is expected. Thus mostly sunny skies with subsidence remaining in play. With fewer clouds in play along with slight warm air advection, highs in the mid 70s are expected. Skies will remain clear with light west winds this evening, but an approaching warm front and low pressure system over the high plains will allow winds to become more northeasterly as the night progresses. Furthermore, models suggest some ridge riding mid and high clouds arriving late overnight. Precipitation with this feature is not expected as the lower levels appear to remain quite dry with dew points in the 40s. HRRR suggests an MCS pushing across MO and IL overnight, but again, this feature should not reach Indiana until after 12z as it will be arriving as it approached its diurnal minimum. Lows should be a bit warmer, in the middle 50s. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Monday through Thursday... Chances for showers and Thunderstorms will be in play for Monday through Thursday, with the best chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. This period will be dominated by another large upper low pushing out of the Rockies on Monday and passing into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday while continuing to linger across the northeastern United States on Thursday and Friday. HRRR suggests MCS remnants lingering and dissipating over Indiana on Monday morning. This is a low confidence feature as moisture and instability appear limited. Ridging aloft may also be still in play. Thus confidence is low for precipitation, but it cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, high clouds are suggested to be arriving and passing through the day as upper forcing arrives amid southwest flow aloft ahead of the approaching low. Forecast soundings show the arrival of moisture as they trend toward saturation on Monday with deep saturation arriving on Monday night into Tuesday, with pwats over 1.40 inches. More chances for rain will continue to be needed on Tuesday and Wednesday as cyclonic flow looks to remain in place as the slow moving upper low pushes toward and across Indiana by Wednesday night. A trough axis, providing forcing appears to pass across Indiana, with moisture in play, again playing into a favorable set- up for rain. Instability through this period seems small but limited at this points, so a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Even on Thursday, as the upper low departs toward Ontario and the northeast, northwest cyclonic flow aloft is suggested to bring a wave of forcing with the flow, once again providing chances for showers or a storm. Due to the expected clouds and precipitation during this time, highs during the week look to remain below normal, while lows remain near or above normals. Friday and Saturday - Dry weather is expected to return at this time as NW flow and subsidence develops in the wake of the departed low. Models suggest the arrival of a Canadian high pressure system, indicative of a cool and dry air mass. This should result in a dry but cool start to the Holiday weekend with below normal temps. pre>
NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT 
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