…Heavy rain axis possible across the Dakotas into north central
Nebraska…
…Severe weather threat from the Central to Northern Plains Wednesday
night into early Thursday, from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes
into the Lower Ohio Valley during Thursday and over the Ohio Valley and
Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley on Friday…
…Additional heavy rains and flooding threats for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night…
…Record highs expected from the Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi
Valley Thursday and from the Southern Plains into the Southeast on
Friday…
…Much above average temperatures and recent record heat to come to an
end across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley region…
…Elevated to Critical fire weather threat to continue across portions of
the Southwest and Southern High Plains…
A developing area of low pressure over the Central Plains Thursday evening
will support a very active thunderstorm, heavy rain, flooding and severe
weather pattern across the Central to Northern Plains, Upper to Mid
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the next few days.
Thunderstorm activity across the Northern Plains Thursday afternoon will
continue to enhance into Thursday night from Nebraska, northward into the
Dakotas. An axis of heavy rains likely over the next two days from north
central Nebraska, north through much of the Dakotas. These heavy rains
will be much beneficial as they are forecast to fall across areas that are
currently experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. In addition
to the heavy rains, isolated flooding is possible along with severe
thunderstorms. High winds and large hail will be the greatest severe
weather risk across these areas, with a lesser risk of tornadoes. The
severe weather threat with this system will be pushing eastward into the
Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Mid-West and Lower Ohio Valley
region during the day on Thursday, with large hail, high winds and
tornadoes all a threat . Rainfall amounts, however, are not expected to
be as heavy as for portions of the Central and Northern Plains as the
thunderstorms are expected to be fairly quick moving to the east and
northeast compared to the very slow moving area of rains over the Central
and Northern Plains. Yet another round of active thunderstorms and
potentially severe weather is possible Friday from the Lower Missouri
Valley, into the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley region.
Across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians,
additional heavy rains and flooding are possible Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening as another round of heavy rains are developing ahead of
a northward moving mid to upper level low moving across these areas. This
next round of rains may fall across regions of western Virginia, far
eastern West Virginia, far western Maryland and far southwest Pennsylvania
that have received 3 to 7 inches of rain over the past two days. With
soils saturated and stream flow above average from the previous heavy
rains, additional flooding is possible with this next round of heavy
rains. Flood watches are currently in effect across these areas,
affecting nearly 6 million people.
The above mentioned active weather across the Northern Plains into the
Upper Mississippi Valley will be bringing an end to the recent much above
average and record temperatures that have stretched across the Dakotas
into Minnesota. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s Wednesday across
this area will drop to much below average levels in the 40s and 50s
Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
While temperatures cool across the north central tier of the nation, much
above average temperatures expected across the Central to Southern Plains,
Mississippi Valley, eastward to the East coast over the next two days.
Record high temperatures are possible Thursday from South and East Texas,
northeastward into the Lower Missouri Valley and Mid Mississippi Valley on
Thursday and from East and South Texas, eastward into the Southeast U.S.
on Friday. Meanwhile, the widespread below average temperatures currently
from the Rockies to the West coast will begin to moderate over the next
two days, before another round of much below temperatures spread into the
West this weekend.
Across eastern portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains,
dry conditions, low relative humidities and gusty winds expected to
continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat over the
next two days. Red Flag warnings are currently in effect across southeast
Arizona, nearly all of New Mexico and far Southwest Texas, affecting
approximately 3 million people.
Oravec
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
