Indiana’s Weather For Tuesday

HEADLINES
– Some scattered showers and storms this afternoon through Wednesday.
– Record high possible Thursday. Current Indy record is 88, from 2001.
– If storms get going Thursday night (mostly after sunset) they could be severe.

TODAY’S MAP

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Surface observations and satellite show the broad low pressure
system stretching from the Mississippi to Ohio Vallies bringing
warmth and moisture into central Indiana.

Early morning, can`t rule out the chance for patchy fog given the
low dew point depressions across the forecast area, but winds should
be high enough to prevent widespread fog.

As the day heats up, scattered showers and thunderstorms will ramp
up - starting around midday and increasing through the afternoon.
Model soundings show a moist column through the atmosphere so while
there is decent instability expected this afternoon, there`s not
much lift or other dynamics to work with today so no severe weather
is expected. Lightning and potentially brief heavy rain in stronger
cells will be the main hazards with these storms.

Mostly cloudy skies will persist through the short term period, with
mostly southeasterly flow. This will help to keep high temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s for today and then another night tonight of
lows in the 60s thanks to higher dew points in place.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Wednesday through Thursday Night...

The long term will start with two H500 troughs occupying essentially
all of the CONUS...the weak and rather disorganized, formerly-
southern cut-off whose axis will be positioned through eastern
Indiana to the Smoky Mountains...while a stronger, deeper trough
along the Rockies begins to negatively tilt and induce surface
cyclogenesis over the western Plains.  Central Indiana can expect a
near-repeat of conditions for Wednesday with moderate humidity and
modest southerly breezes bringing another day nearing 80F.  Widely
scattered showers and non-severe t-storms will be focused along/east
of the I-65 corridor given the proximity of the slowly-departing
trough.

Attention continues to focus on Thursday when a subtropical upper
ridge will build between the two troughs, from the southern Plains
into the Midwest...bringing anomalous warmth and a conditional
potential of severe storms.  Confidence is continuing to increase in
near-record warmth as southern gusts to 15-25 mph easily boost
readings into the mid to upper 80s.  Indianapolis has yet to exceed
82F this year, yet partial cloudiness should thwart a first-90F mark
for the city.

The southeastern periphery of a strong, stacked low over the
northern Plains will push some mid-level energy into the Midwest
through afternoon and evening hours Thursday...which should present
a combination of high instability and ample wind shear favorable for
at least a few strong/severe storms.  Greatest limiting factor here
will be a strong and possibly persistent capped thermal profile that
could greatly limit the otherwise potent potential.  Guidance is
also hinting at timing of the arriving synoptic wave may be a bit
late with heights perhaps failing to drop until after 00Z. Therefore
expect optimal location for stronger storms north of I-70...with
focus of threat shifting from Indiana`s NW to NE quadrants through
the evening and possibly overnight.

Friday through Monday...

Remainder of the long term surrounding this weekend is expected to
feature a zonal and progressive pattern into the Midwest along the
southern belly of the trough lingering across the Great Lakes into
the Northeast.  Another very warm day Friday ahead of the system`s
cold front could set the stage for several hours of heavy convective
rains...especially towards the Ohio Valley where a reinforcing push
of Gulf moisture may just catch another push of, more northern,
energy...although certainty here is so far low.

The weekend should be mainly dry, although lack of any impressive
advection of Canadian high pressure should keep the dragging frontal
zone near the region...allowing only a slow downward trend of
temperatures through above normal levels.  Guidance is noting an
upper ridge building over the Plains early next week would favor
seasonable readings and low chances for showers/t-storms, especially
over the southwestern Midwest.  The normal max/min at Indianapolis
through the long term is 74/54.

INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon. High 75.

Tonight: Scattered showers and storms. Low 62.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and storms. High 77.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 64.

Thursday: Partly sunny , hot and humid. High 87.

Thursday Night: Spotty showers or storms in the evening, possibly severe. Low 67.

Friday: Mostly sunny and hot. Not as humid. High 86.

Friday Night: Clouds increase. Scattered showers and storms. Low 62.

Saturday Mostly sunny. High 81.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 59.

Sunday: Partly sunny. High 77.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 53.

Monday: Partly sunny. High 76.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT