…A Slow moving mid to upper level low to bring heavy rain and flooding
potential from Southeast Florida, into the Southern to Central
Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic…
…Record heat to continue across the Northern Plains and develop across
the Southern Plains…
…A strong cold front to produce much below average temperatures across
large portions of the West Tuesday and Wednesday…
…Elevated to critical fire weather threats for portions of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains and Southwest…
A well defined closed low over the central Gulf coastal region will be
lifting slowly northward over the next two days across the Tennessee and
Ohio Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes region. This system will be
supporting potential for widespread heavy rains, especially on the eastern
side of the circulation from Southeast Florida, northward into the
Mid-Atlantic, Southern to Central Appalachians and Lower Great Lakes,
where above average moisture values are expected. Much of these regions
are currently experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions, with
these rains potentially beneficial. However, there will also be the
threat of flooding and flash flooding, as storms may be slow moving and
repeat over the same area. This threat is especially so across urban
areas of Southeast Florida and the Mid-Atlantic and across the higher
terrain areas of the Southern to Central Appalachians. Flood watches are
currently in effect across Southeast Florida, central Alabama, central
North Carolina and across the Southern to Central Appalachians from
western North Carolina, northeast through western Virginia, eastern West
Virginia and far western Maryland, affecting nearly 20 million people.
While the heaviest rains with this slow moving system are expected on it
eastern side from Southeast Florida, into the Mid-Atlantic, Southern to
Central Appalachians and Lower Great Lakes, widespread scattered showers
are also likely from the Central Gulf coast, north through the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys and into the Mid-West. Much of these areas will see
light to moderate totals, with potential for isolated heavy totals, but
not as widespread as on the eastern side of the slow moving mid to upper
level low.
While a strong slow moving mid to upper level flow affects much of the
eastern U.S. over the next two days, another strong mid to upper level low
will be pushing inland from the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern
Great Basin/Northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday and then into the
Northern High Plains on Wednesday. Widespread scattered areas of light to
moderate precip totals possible from the Northern Sierra/northern
California into the Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies late Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. There will be the potential for heavier
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday from the Northern Rockies into
the Northern High Plains. The strong associated surface cold front with
this mid to upper level low is already producing much below average
temperatures Monday from Central to Northern California into the Pacific
Northwest. These much below average temperatures will spread southward
into Southern California and eastward into the Great Basin/Northern
Rockies on Tuesday and into the Southwest and Central Rockies on Wednesday.
In contrast to the much below average temperatures spreading eastward with
time across the West, much above to record high temperatures will continue
across large sections of the Plains into Mid Week. Additional record
highs likely Tuesday and Wednesday from the Dakotas into Minnesota and
also developing across portions of south central Texas. Across the areas
of much above average temperatures, gust winds, dry conditions and low
relative humidities are also expected and will produce elevated to
critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag warnings are currently in
effect across large portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley, Upper Great Lakes region and over portions of the Southwest,
affecting over 10 million people.
Oravec
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
