…Thunderstorms and heavy rain from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic…
…Showers and storms in the Northwest; seasonally cool in the East and
trending cooler in the West…
…Record heat for the Northern and Southern Plains…
A meandering storm system over the Lower Mississippi Valley continues to
deliver a blend of both Gulf and Atlantic moisture into the Southeast.
Today, the shield of rain and embedded thunderstorms will make its way
north into the Mid-Atlantic while still producing widespread showers and
storms throughout the Southeast. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (threat level
2/4) from Virginia on south through the Carolinas and as far south as
southwest Florida. In southeast Florida, a Moderate Risk (threat level
3/4) was introduced due to the expectation of torrential rainfall rates
over the highly urbanized metropolitan section of southeast Florida.
Locally significant flash flooding is possible in southeast Florida today.
A Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) stretches as far west as the Ozarks and
Middle Mississippi Valley where isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible. The storm system makes its way through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Tuesday with the axis of heavy rainfall becoming more fixated
over the Mid-Atlantic. A Slight Risk remains in place over the
Mid-Atlantic while the Marginal Risk extends as far west as the upper Ohio
Valley and southern Appalachians. Through early Wednesday morning, the
Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina and Virginia are likely to see the
heaviest rainfall given the southeasterly flow will provide
upslope-enhanced rainfall rates over the higher terrain. As much as 3 to 5
inches of rainfall are forecast in the Blue Ridge with localized amounts
approaching 7 inches possible. The Virginia Piedmont on south to southeast
North Carolina could also receive as much as 2 to 4 inches of rainfall.
In the West, an incoming storm system will usher in widespread showers
(snow for the higher terrain of the Northern Rockies) and much cooler
temperatures over the Pacific Northwest today, then throughout the western
third of the CONUS by Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front, blustery winds
will be common across the Great Basin, the California Peninsular Range,
portions of the Mojave Desert, and as far east as northern Arizona. Wind
Advisories were issued for these areas due to wind gusts surpassing 50 mph
tomorrow in some areas, making travel potentially difficult some high
profile vehicles. By Tuesday, rain and mountain snow will progress east
into Utah, Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming. Monday marks the last day of
widespread 90s in the Desert Southwest as temperatures will be 10-30
degrees cooler by Tuesday and Wednesday. Farther north, expected
widespread 50s and 60s throughout the Great Basin and Northwest through
mid-week.
Over the Northern Plains, hot and record high temperatures will persist
through Tuesday, along with windy/dry conditions throughout the region
today. Red flag warnings are in effect through today with Elevated to
Critical fire weather conditions still in place. Temperatures will easily
reach the 90s with a few areas potentially as high as the century mark
from the Dakotas to Minnesota, breaking numerous daily record high
temperatures today. Temperatures only back down by a few degrees on
Tuesday, resulting in more opportunities for record breaking heat in the
Northern Plains. Moderate to Major HeatRisk levels are forecast for this
region — stay hydrated and out of the sun during the hottest part of the
day. As the upper level ridge advances over the Heartland the first half
of the week, temperatures will continue to heat up throughout the Central
and Southern Plains. The hottest conditions will be found deep in the
heart of Texas where widespread 100F readings are likely over much of the
Lone Star state Tuesday and into Wednesday. Expect record breaking heat
across much of central and southern Texas through mid-week. HeatRisk
values will increase into the Moderate category by Tuesday, with more
widespread cases of Major values showing up in parts of the Rio Grande
Valley, central Texas, and eastern Texas.
Mullinax
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
