…Excessive Rainfall and severe weather focusing throughout the Southeast
into early next week…
…Record warmth expected in parts of the West & Northern Plains this
weekend…
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to impact the Southeast U.S.
over the next few days. An upper-level low meandering over the Deep South
will direct copious amounts of Gulf moisture northward while a stationary
front also acts as a trigger for thunderstorms each day. WPC has an
expansive Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall that
stretches from the Lower Mississippi River Valley to as far east as the
Southeast coast through Tuesday morning; Slight Risk (threat level 2/4)
fro Florida Panhandle/southeast Alabama today and expanding across the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic regions Sunday and Monday. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a Marginal Risk from the Central
Gulf Coast to the Georgia Coast this weekend with a Slight Risk (threat
level 2/5) for the Florida Panhandle and portions of southern Alabama and
Georgia through Sunday morning. Please visit WPC’s Medium Range discussion
for more details on the forecast for Tuesday onward. Further north,
lingering rain across the Northeast will taper over tonight as the upper
low moves out of the region.
A troughing pattern over the Pacific Northwest will direct a series of
disturbances at the Northern Rockies and High Plains this weekend.
Portions of the West and Northern High Plains have been identified by SPC
to have a Marginal Risk for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
winds and large hail in these regions through Sunday. The pattern becomes
increasingly unsettled over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday with lingering
periods of rain and high elevation mountain snow on Monday. Sandwiched
between the wet conditions this weekend in the Southeast and Northwest is
a dry stretch of weather for much of the Southwest, Midwest, Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic.
The extensive cloud cover is contributing to persistent cooler
temperatures than seasonal normal for May for southern and northern parts
of the country. Daily temperatures will be below normal from the Rio
Grande Valley of western Texas all the way to the Carolinas and the
Northeast, averaging 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Early morning frost is also
possible this morning from the upper Ohio Valley to the central
Appalachians. In contrast, ridging over the West and northern states will
favor very warm temperatures for mid-May, making Mother’s Day Weekend feel
more like an early kick-off to summer in some locations. Record warmth is
forecast today from Southern California and the Great Basin to the
northern High Plains. Some parts of Southern California may see high
temperatures reach triple digits, while morning lows may also challenge
record warm levels for this time of year. By Sunday, the record heat moves
into the Upper Midwest with many 90+ degree readings expected in the
Dakotas and Minnesota. Temperature anomalies throughout the West are
likely to range between 15-25 degrees above normal and will potentially
approach 30 degrees above normal in the Northern Plains by Sunday. NWS’s
HeatRisk does depict Moderate to scattered instances of Major heat
potential in the Southwest on this weekend, as well as up in the Northern
Plains by Sunday. Please visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for more
information on the NWS HeatRisk products.
Campbell/Mullinax
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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