…Excessive Rainfall and severe weather to be the focus for the weekend
forecast throughout the Southeast…
…Another day of heavy rain for parts of New England today; showers &
thunderstorms in the Northwest, but drier in the Southwest, Midwest, Great
Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic…
…Record warmth expected in parts of the West & Northern Plains this
weekend…
A dawdling storm system along the Gulf Coast will generate rounds of heavy
rain and thunderstorms this weekend and into the first half of next week.
An upper-level low meandering over the Deep South will direct copious
amounts of Gulf moisture northward while a stationary front also acts as a
trigger for thunderstorms each day. WPC has an expansive Marginal Risk
(threat level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall that stretches from the Lower
Mississippi River Valley to as far east as the Southeast coast each day
this weekend. The area most at-risk for flash flooding today is along the
Florida Panhandle where torrential rainfall rates are likely to ensue over
soils that are becoming increasingly saturated. WPC has hoisted a Slight
Risk (threat level 2/4) for parts of the Florida Panhandle and southeast
Alabama. By Sunday, the upper low remains stationary over Louisiana while
pumping more heavy rainfall into the Southeast. WPC has a larger Slight
Risk area for Excessive Rainfall that encompasses most of northern
Florida, much of Georgia, and even into portions of South Carolina. There
is also a severe component to the forecast as well with the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) posting Marginal Risks from the Central Gulf Coast
and Lower Mississippi Valley to the Georgia Coast this weekend. The storm
finally begins its slow progression east on Monday, but the Excessive
Rainfall threat will extend as far north as the southern Mid-Atlantic and
as far south as the Florida Peninsula. The slow progress of this storm
system will keep heavy rainfall in the forecast into Tuesday across the
Mid-Atlantic. Please visit WPC’s Medium Range discussion for more details
on the forecast for Tuesday onward.
Elsewhere, the upper low responsible for heavy rainfall late Thursday and
into Friday will make its exit off the Northeast coast by Saturday night.
Until then, periods of rain will continue across much of New England this
morning before tapering off Saturday evening. Regarding other areas of
active weather, a troughing pattern over the Pacific Northwest will direct
a series of disturbances at the Northern Rockies and High Plains this
weekend. SPC issued Marginal Risks for thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and large hail in these regions both today and Sunday. The
pattern becomes increasingly unsettled over the Pacific Northwest on
Sunday with lingering periods of rain and high elevation mountain snow on
Monday. Sandwiched between the wet conditions this weekend in the
Southeast and Northwest is a dry stretch of weather for much of the
Southwest, Midwest, Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic.
The weather pattern across the Lower 48 is making for significant
temperature anomalies that will persist through the weekend. Thanks to the
pair of storm systems causing extensive cloud cover for much of the
coastal areas and their associated cold fronts directing cooler temps into
the southern and northeastern U.S., temperatures will be below normal from
the Rio Grande Valley of western Texas all the way to the Carolinas.
Temperature anomalies will largely be 5-10 degrees below normal throughout
much of the South and New England. Early morning frost is also possible
this morning from the upper Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians.
Meanwhile, a large upper level ridge will park itself over the western and
northern U.S. that will foster very warm temperatures for mid-May, making
Mother’s Day Weekend feel more like an early kick-off to summer in some
locations. Record warmth is forecast today from Southern California and
the Great Basin to the northern High Plains. Some parts of Southern
California may see high temperatures reach triple digits, while morning
lows may also challenge record warm levels for this time of year. By
Sunday, the record heat moves into the Upper Midwest with many 90+ degree
readings expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Temperature anomalies
throughout the West are likely to range between 15-25 degrees above normal
and will potentially approach 30 degrees above normal in the Northern
Plains by Sunday. NWS’s HeatRisk does depict Moderate to scattered
instances of Major heat potential in the Southwest on this weekend, as
well as up in the Northern Plains by Sunday. Please visit
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for more information on the NWS HeatRisk
products.
Mullinax
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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