…Soaking rainfall across the Northeast today will persist in parts of
New England on Saturday…
…Excessive Rainfall and severe weather to be the focus for the weekend
forecast throughout the Southeast…
…Record warmth expected in parts of the West & Northern Plains today and
into the weekend…
A pair of slow moving storm systems are responsible for prolonged periods
of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast and the Northeast.
Starting in the Northeast, an area of low pressure will carry a plume of
rich moisture aloft into the region today. The heaviest rainfall today
will be found from the Catskills on east across much of New England. By
Saturday, the strengthening storm system will track into the Gulf of Maine
with a broad swath of heavy rainfall centered over northern New England.
The Northeast will gradually dry out throughout the day Saturday with
Downeast Maine seeing the last bands of showers finally depart by Saturday
evening. The latest forecast calls for an additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall across much of New England with localized totals over 2 inches
possible through Saturday. With much of the region sporting saturated and
sensitive soils, it is possible for instances localized flash flooding and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding through Saturday. WPC has issued
a pair of Marginal Risks (threat level 1/4) to highlight the flash
flooding potential that will most likely be confined to poor drainage
areas and urbanized communities.
Farther south, another dawdling storm system is set to produce rounds of
heavy rain and thunderstorms today and into the weekend. This storm system
will direct copious amounts of Gulf moisture northward while a stationary
front also acts as a trigger for thunderstorms each day. Today, WPC has an
expansive Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall that stretches from the
Lower Mississippi River Valley to as far east as the Southeast coast. In
addition to the Excessive Rainfall potential, the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) issued a pair of Slight Risks (threat level 2/5) along Florida’s
Space Coast and in the North Carolina Outer Banks. SPC’s Marginal Risks
encompasses much of the same areas of the Southeast as WPC’s Marginal Risk
with severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and
tornadoes. By Saturday, the upper low responsible for the onslaught of
heavy rain meanders eastward slightly, placing Alabama, the Florida
Panhandle, and much of southern Georgia in the best position to receive
the heaviest rainfall. In terms of severe weather, SPC does have a
Marginal Risk in place for much of northern and central Florida. Through
Friday and Saturday alone, the rainfall forecast calls for as much as 1-4
inches of rain for much of the Southeast with the Florida Panhandle having
the best chances for witnessing the heaviest amounts. Flash flooding, as
well as some cases of river and small stream flooding, are expected
through Saturday with more rain still to come both Sunday and into early
next week. Please visit WPC’s Medium Range discussion for more details on
the forecast for Sunday and into next week.
The weather pattern across the Lower 48 is making for dramatic temperature
anomalies that will persist through the weekend. With the pair of storm
systems causing widespread cloud cover for much of the coastal areas and
their associated cold fronts directing cooler temps into the southern and
eastern U.S., temperatures will be below normal from the Rio Grande Valley
of western Texas all the way to the East Coast. Temperature anomalies will
largely be 5-10 degrees below normal with some parts of the Northeast
seeing departures as cool as 15 degrees below normal in some cases.
Meanwhile, a large upper level ridge will park itself over the western and
northern U.S. that will foster very warm temperatures for early-to-mid
May. Some record warmth is possible today in parts of northern California
and the Great Basin, but the footprint of record-breaking warmth will
consume more of the West, including the Northern Rockies and Southern
California. Some parts of Southern California may see high temperatures
reach triple digits, while morning lows may also challenge record warm
levels for this time of year. Temperature anomalies throughout the West by
Saturday are likely to range between 15-25 degrees above normal and will
potentially approach 30 degrees above normal in the Northern Plains by
Sunday. NWS’s HeatRisk does depict Moderate to scattered instances of
Major heat potential in the Southeast on Saturday, with Moderate heat
impacts showing up in the Northern Plains. Please visit
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for more information on the NWS HeatRisk
products.
Mullinax
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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