Indiana’s Weather For Saturday

HEADLINES
– Showers will continue at times through tonight.
– Below normal temperatures (especially through Monday).
– Dreary and damp conditions through next week.

TODAY’S MAP

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Rain will continue at times across central Indiana throughout the
short term period as an upper level low sets up across the area.
Locally heavy rain is possible across southwest portions of the area.

Early This Morning...

As a weak wave of low pressure rides along a boundary to the
southeast of central Indiana, scattered to perhaps numerous showers
will be across mainly the southeastern half of the area. Coverage
will diminish some as the low moves east.

This Morning through Mid-Afternoon...

Scattered to numerous showers will return to mainly southern and
eastern portions of the area as additional rounds of forcing move
through. Cannot rule out some showers northwest though with some
weak troughing noted at the surface. Will have lower PoPs northwest
with higher PoPs at times farther south and east.

Some weak instability may allow an isolated thunderstorm to develop,
but severe weather is not expected.

Clouds will help keep temperatures in the lower to middle 60s for
the most part. If some sun does break through, readings in the upper
60s are possible.

Late Afternoon and Tonight...

As the upper low moves southeast into western Kentucky, forcing will
increase. Plentiful moisture will remain across the area. Will have
high PoPs most areas at some point during this period. Instability
will be enough for the potential of an isolated thunderstorm late
this afternoon, but then instability diminishes into the night.

850mb winds increase from the northeast overnight, increasing
convergence across the southwest portions of the forecast area. A
surface pressure trough will also linger in this area. This leads to
the potential of repeated development of showers over the same area.

HREF local probability matched mean QPF forecasts do show the
potential for locally heavy rain focused on the southwest forecast
area. Will mention the threat of locally heavy rain and will
continue to monitor.

Lows will be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

The long term period will be characterized by a stagnant and
blocky pattern featuring a couple of cutoff upper level low pressure
centers, which will impact the area over the weekend into early next
week, with the second following mid to late week.

This will lead to seasonably cool and dreary conditions through the
weekend into Monday, with near constant chances for showers. As the
first low departs, a break in rain chances is possible sometime
around Tuesday night give or take before the threat for showers
returns Wednesday onward.

An isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out during peak
heating each day, but chances at this point appear too low for
inclusion given the widespread cloud cover expected and difficulty
destabilizing.

Significant differences in model handling of the blocky pattern and
particularly the second low pressure system leads to lower
confidence and thus lower PoPs later in the forecast period.

Temperatures will moderate a bit mid to late week as the mid to
upper level cold pool associated with the first low departs, though
as with precipitation chances, uncertainty is higher in this regard,
as some guidance shows a connection to a longwave trough developing
with the second low, which could allow another intrusion of cooler
air into the region.

Nonetheless, the story of the next week or so will be temperatures
near to below normal and frequently damp and dreary conditions.

&&

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT