…A mid to upper level omega block to form across the CONUS, leading to
active weather and large temperatures contrasts…
…Heavy rain, flooding and severe weather threats to stretch from the
Southern Plains, northeast into Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes region…
The mid to upper level flow pattern will become increasingly blocked over
the next few days with an omega block forming from California, eastward
into the Ohio Valley. The eastern component of this block will be
comprised of a slow moving and strengthening closed low forming across the
Lower Missouri Valley Friday and moving into the Mid Mississippi
Valley/Lower Ohio Valley region on Saturday. To the west of this, an
amplified upper ridge will stretch across the Great Basin/Rockies region
Friday/Saturday and move into the High Plains late Saturday into Sunday.
Meanwhile, the western component of the omega block will see a strong
closed low form along the northern California coast Saturday and drop
south into Southern California into early Sunday.
An axis of above average moisture values expected to persist along and to
the east of a frontal zone that will be moving only slowly eastward over
the next few days, associated with the eastern component of the omega
block. This will support increasingly active showers and thunderstorms
over a large portion of the CONUS from the Southern Plains, into the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes
region. This active shower and thunderstorm pattern over the next two
days will be falling across areas that have seen above average
precipitation over the past month, which has resulted in high soil
moisture and stream flow values. This additional rains over the more
saturated soils and higher stream flow will support a risk of flooding
from enhanced runoff across these areas. In addition to the flooding
threat, the active shower and thunderstorm pattern will support potential
for severe weather over the next two days from the Southern Plains, into
the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and eastern
Lakes region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the greatest severe
weather risks across these areas, with tornadoes a lesser risk. The
expected heavy rains over the next few two days, will remain to the west
of the immediate eastern seaboard that continues to be dry and experience
widespread moderate to severe drought conditions. However, portions of
the drought area along the east coast will have the potential for much
needed rains late this weekend into early next week, bringing at least
some relief to the current drought conditions.
With the above mentioned highly amplified systems stretching west to east
across the CONUS, large temperatures contrasts will develop. Below
average temperatures expected to develop on Saturday along all of the West
coast from Washington to California, pushing into the Southwest and
becoming much below average (15 to 25 degree below average) by the end of
the weekend as the strong closed low forms. Underneath the amplified
upper ridge to the east and northeast of this, much above average
temperatures across the Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies Friday will
push east into the Northern to Central Plains by this weekend. Meanwhile,
below average temperatures expected in the above mentioned region of
active precipitation stretching from the Southern Plains into the Lower to
Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and eastern Lakes
regions. While all of these regions see large temperature contrasts and
large negative an positive temperatures anomalies, there is not expected
to be any widespread record, warm or cold over the next few days.
Oravec
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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