Indiana’s Weather For Thursday

HEADLINES
– Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, particularly this afternoon into early evening.
– A few could be strong to severe, mainly east of I-69.
– Cooler and unsettled with periodic showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

TODAY’S MAP

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Another day of unsettled weather is expected across central Indiana
today, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at
times, particularly this afternoon into early evening, though a
round of weak showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning.

Regional radar imagery shows an arc of weak thunderstorms from
central Illinois into far southwestern Indiana and western Kentucky
at this time. Expect this band of showers and storms to pivot
northeastward across the area, remaining weak as it does so, though
whatever remnant remains of this may serve as a focus for
reintensification just to our east later this morning into a strong
to severe storm complex.

Across central Indiana, the area will remain solidly in the warm
sector of a broad surface low moving into the Great Lakes, though
destabilization is uncertain given the expected cloud cover today.
That said, strong deep layer shear will be present, and any updrafts
developing in the weak to modest instability will have the potential
to organize into strong to severe clusters or line segments,
particularly during and a few hours either side of peak heating this
afternoon as an upper level shortwave passes through the area. Given
the moderately strong low level flow, it won`t take much convective
enhancement to produce a few marginally severe wind gusts.

Scattered showers and storms may linger into the evening hours
before tapering off overnight as the initial shortwave departs and
nocturnal stabilization occurs.

Cloud cover and precip coverage will impact heating today, likely
limiting diurnal range significantly, with highs in the low to mid
70s. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler as dewpoints drop off a bit,
allowing temps to fall into the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025

Model consensus has come into better alignment on an extension of
an unsettled and cooler pattern through the weekend and possibly
into the first half of next week...first as a second surface low
and front pivot through the Ohio Valley Friday then become nearly
stationary just to the southeast of the area into the weekend. The
arrival and development of a closed off upper level low will
bring the second piece as it now appears likely to spin slowly
over the region through Tuesday before shifting east. Periodic
rain chances are now likely to persist through Monday and Tuesday
before a more extended stretch of dry weather commences by the
middle of next week.

Friday through Monday Night

Multiple waves of low pressure along a second frontal boundary will
track through the region on Friday with isolated to scattered
convection. The second surface wave will lift into the Ohio Valley
late day and has the potential to bring a period of greater rainfall
coverage lasting through the evening as the boundary slips to the
southeast of central Indiana.

The front will become nearly stationary from eastern Ohio southwest
into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and remain in close enough
proximity to keep an abundance of clouds across the forecast area
along with a few showers. As the upper low closes off and pinwheels
into the Ohio Valley by late day...scattered convective coverage
will again develop over the region before diminishing as diurnal
heating is lost.

The frontal boundary will move away to the east Saturday night with
the upper low becoming the primary feature as it fully cuts off
within an increasingly amplified and blocky pattern aloft across the
country. The presence of the upper low over the region will maintain
periodic chances for showers and a few thunderstorms with coverage
likely to be greatest during the afternoon and evenings Sunday and
Monday during peak heating. There remains low confidence in the
specifics but the potential is there for some locations...likely
focused across the southeast half of the forecast area...to see 1 to
2 inches of additional rain from Friday through Monday night.

With the shift to a wetter pattern with increased cloud cover
through the period...have lowered highs mainly to the lower and mid
60s for Saturday through Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday

The upper low will begin to move east away from the region on
Tuesday with the approach of weak high pressure and increasing
subsidence through the column any should should be largely isolated
on Tuesday. Ridging aloft will finally expand into the Ohio Valley by
midweek with highs recovering back into the lower to mid 70s by
Wednesday.

INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Showers and storms. A few could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. High 73.

Tonight: Scattered showers and storms. Low 57.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Thunder possible in the afternoon. High 72.

Friday Night: Periods of showers. Low 50.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with spotty showers. Spotty storm in the afternoon. High 62.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Spotty showers and possible thunder. Low 44.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with spotty showers possible. High 66.

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, with spotty showers. Low 48.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with spotty showers. High 68.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 50.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 73.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 55.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 75.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT