…Episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will keep heightened
flash flooding concerns across the south-central U.S. through early
Thursday…
…Showers and embedded severe thunderstorms expected to shift east into
the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday…
…Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms returns to the
south-central Plains on Friday…
A stalled frontal boundary interacting with upper-level disturbances
ejecting from the southern Rockies will remain the focus for additional
episodes of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the
south-central U.S. into early Thursday. The heaviest rain threat will be
confined to portions of southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and
western Arkansas where a moderate risk of flash flooding remains in place.
An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is also embedded within this
general area. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is
expected for a larger portion of the south-central U.S. into tonight. By
Thursday, a low pressure system forming along the front will begin to
track northeastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest,
which will effectively end the heavy rainfall and severe weather threats
across the south-central U.S. However, on the other side of the system,
showers and embedded severe thunderstorms are forecast to increase and
expand across Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging
winds, hail, and an isolated tornado are the primary concerns from any
severe storms.
Meanwhile, a Pacific frontal system moving across the Intermountain West,
Rockies and northern High Plains is bringing a round of lower elevation
rains and accumulating wet snow in the mountains. In the wake of the
system and cold front, drier weather moves in later tonight into Thursday
as high pressure takes control. By early Friday morning, the cold front
will dip south into the southern High Plains and intersect moisture
returning from the western Gulf to provide increasing chances of strong to
severe thunderstorms extending east into the southern Plains Friday
afternoon.
Across the Northeast, cooler and drier air will gradually filter into the
region this afternoon and evening in the wake of a cold front. High
pressure will be in control on Thursday before showers and thunderstorms
arrive ahead of the low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes
on Friday.
A strong ridge of high pressure extending across much of the eastern U.S.
will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through mid to
late week. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common. Overall near
average temperatures are in store for the western and central U.S. through
Thursday before warming up some across the Pacific Northwest heading into
the latter half of the week.
Miller/Kong
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
