…Episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will keep heightened
flash flooding concerns across the south-central U.S. through early
Thursday…
…Showers and embedded severe thunderstorms expected to shift east into
the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday…
…Chance of strong to severe thunderstorms return to the south-central
Plains by early Friday morning…
A stalled frontal boundary interacting with upper-level disturbances
ejecting from the southern Rockies will remain the focus for additional
episodes of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the
south-central U.S. through today and into early Thursday. The highest
threat of heaviest rain is forecast to shift only slightly to the east
today across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and western
Arkansas where a moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated. An
enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is also embedded within this general
area. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is
expected for a larger portion of the south-central U.S. for today into
tonight. By tonight into Thursday, a low pressure system forming along
the front will begin to track northeastward across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley into the Midwest, which will effectively end the heavy rainfall and
severe weather threats across the south-central U.S. on Thursday. On the
other side of the system, showers and embedded severe thunderstorms are
forecast to increase and expand across Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and
Tennessee Valleys. By early Friday morning, the low pressure system
should be moving through the Great Lakes with scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms across the lower Great Lakes and spreading into New
England.
Meanwhile, a Pacific frontal system moving across the northern
Intermountain West, northern Rockies into the northern High Plains is
bringing a round of lower elevation rains and accumulating wet snow in the
mountains. In the wake of the system and cold front, drier weather moves
in later Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure takes control. By early
Friday morning, the cold front will dip south into the southern High
Plains and intersect moisture returning from the western Gulf to provide
increasing chance of strong to severe thunderstorms extending east into
the southern Plains.
Across the Northeast, cooler and drier air will arrive today with gusty
winds behind a cold front. High pressure will be in control on Thursday
before showers and thunderstorms arrive ahead of the low pressure system
approaching from the Great Lakes Friday morning. The Mid-Atlantic will
have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday as
the front stalls across the region where afternoon temperatures are
expected to reach well into the 80s. Florida will enjoy mostly fine and
warm to hot weather appropriate for the Sunshine State. The Desert
Southwest will remain dry as well.
A strong ridge of high pressure extending across much of the eastern U.S.
will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through mid to
late week. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common. Behind the
front, portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast cool down briefly today
before warming back up on Thursday. Overall near average temperatures are
in store for the western and central U.S. Wednesday into Thursday before
warming up some across the Pacific Northwest heading into the latter half
of the week.
Kong/Miller
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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