HEADLINES
– Rain chances return later today into this evening from south to north. Scattered thunderstorms also possible tonight.
– An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible late this afternoon into this evening.
– Rain and embedded thunderstorms also expected on Thursday with some severe weather risk again Thursday afternoon into the evening hours.
TODAY’S MAP
SEVERE WEATHER RISK
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Light winds and clear skies this morning under the influence of high pressure over the upper Great Lakes has set the stage for areas of dense fog, primarily across the southern half of the area where rainfall was maximized yesterday and ample shallow moisture is trapped beneath a nocturnal inversion. This fog will mix out in typical diurnal fashion after daybreak as boundary layer mixing ramps up and the inversion is mixed out. An upper level low will shift from the southwestern CONUS into the southern Plains/lower Mississippi valley today into tonight, allowing developing surface low pressure to strengthen as it swings from the Plains into the Midwest tonight, bringing yesterday`s cold front back northward as a warm front. Potential for an MCV to move into the region from upstream convection ongoing this morning as the warm front pushes northward is driving a reasonable day one marginal risk for southern portions of central Indiana today. These sorts of setups can be sneaky severe weather producers, though uncertainty remains as to the degree of destabilization that will occur ahead of time. Will need to keep an eye through the day on insolation and degree of low level moisture return into the area, as this will drive any potential severe threat this afternoon into this evening. If destabilization is strong enough this afternoon to produce thunderstorms, organized convection should be a good bet given good deep layer shear, and CAMs do show some evidence of low level profiles which may be conducive to rotation. Outside of the severe threat, precipitation chances will be ramping up through the day into tonight as the warm front pushes northward and kinematic support increases owing to the aforementioned upper low. Even if severe weather does not materialize, deep moisture and strong tropospheric flow will produce embedded thunderstorms in broader showers, which may be heavy at times tonight with precipitable water values in excess of the climatological 90th percentile. Temperatures should push back into the 70s across much of the area today with the front returning northward, and lows tonight are unlikely to drop much more than into the 60s with central Indiana remaining solidly in the warm sector of the surface low. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Unsettled conditions continue with additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as we wrap up the work week with a cold front moving across the Thursday night followed by a trailing upper level low and associated surface trough on Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend with an amplified and blocky upper level pattern developing across the country by early next week. There remains the possibility that the upper trough passing through the Ohio Valley during the first part of the weekend closes off into a low to our east into early next week. This would delay the arrival of ridging and warmer air by a few days and could cause a wet and unsettled pattern to linger but confidence is low in this solution coming to pass. The more consistent idea remains that ridging aloft and at the surface will become the dominant features across the region and bring a return to warm and dry weather by early next week. Thursday through Friday The warm front should be fully north of the forecast area by Thursday morning as low pressure lifts into north central Illinois. The low will strengthen as it tracks into the Great Lakes by the afternoon with a noted increase in 850mb flow late day immediately ahead of the approaching cold front into the afternoon. MLCAPEs between 1500-2000 j/kg along with an increase in storm relative helicity levels within the near surface layer support the potential for better organized convection ahead of the front with model soundings hinting at some directional shear present within the boundary layer as well. The potential for severe weather focused during the afternoon and evening has increased across much of the forecast area with damaging winds as the primary concern. Showers will diminish Thursday night as the cold front moves off to the east. An upper wave will pivot across the area Friday afternoon with a trailing surface trough in the areas as well. With model soundings showing steepening lapse rates and weak instability developing underneath the mid level cold pool...there is potential for scattered convection during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening. The combination of the freezing level falling back to near the 700mb level with instability elevated through the column does support the potential for small hail within any stronger cells that can develop. Friday Night through Tuesday As mentioned above...there remains a bit of model uncertainty with respect to the upper trough as it departs off to the east over the weekend. The more plausible scenario at this point is a more progressive and weaker feature moving off to our east...ensuring the expansion of high pressure at the surface that will set the stage for a dry weekend with mainly clear skies. This will also enable the arrival of ridging aloft by late Sunday into the first half of next week...bringing an extended period of dry weather and progressively warmer temperatures. Saturday will be the coolest day of the extended with low and mid 60s common for highs. Temperatures will rise from that point as southerly flow takes over on the back side of the surface high...with highs back to near 80 by Tuesday and continuing for much of the rest of next week.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Partly sunny. Later afternoon shower possible. High 73.
Tonight: Scattered showers and storms, especially south/west of Indy where storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low 63.
Thursday: Showers and storms. A few could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. High 76.
Thursday Night: Showers and storms. Low 57.
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High 69.
Friday Night: Periods of showers. Low 48.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy morning, with scattered showers. Partly sunny later. High 64.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 44.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 68.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low 49.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 75.
Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low 52.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 78.
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