…Strong to severe thunderstorms expected from the interior Northeast, to
the Ohio Valley, to the southern Plains through this evening…
…Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible across
portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas on Wednesday…
…Episodes of heavy rain will bring flash flooding concerns across the
south-central U.S. through early Thursday…
An elongated low pressure system and its trailing cold front continues to
track eastward across the upper Great Lakes this afternoon. Daytime
heating under a warm southwesterly flow ahead of the front will promote
the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the
interior Northeast and Ohio Valley through this evening. The Storm
Prediction Center continues to maintain an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe weather with high winds and hail being the primary threats. The
front is expected to clear the entire Northeast by Wednesday morning,
ending the threat of severe weather as gusty westerly winds usher much
cooler and drier air from the Great Lakes into the Northeast ahead of a
high pressure system. The high pressure system will continue to settle
into the Northeast, bringing a chilly and dry morning into the region by
Thursday morning.
In addition to the severe threat across the interior Northeast and Ohio
Valley, severe storms will also be possible farther south and west across
portions of western Texas and southwest Oklahoma through this evening.
Here, the Storm Prediction Center highlights an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
of severe weather, with very large hail and damaging winds the greatest
threats. An isolated tornado or two is not ruled out as well. Then on
Wednesday, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms shifts to
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the southern Plains. The
Storm Prediction Center outlines a Slight Risk (level 2/5) across parts of
Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the
potential for a couple tornadoes are the primary concerns. Meanwhile, the
trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall
across the southern Plains through tonight before beginning to lift
northeastward on Wednesday as a warm front. An episode of heavy rain is
expected to impact areas from northern Texas into a large portion of
Oklahoma toward the mid-Mississippi Valley as the front remains nearly
stationary. Given the already saturated grounds from recent heavy
rainfall, and the potential for an additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain, the
Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall for portions of the aforementioned areas through
Wednesday. Numerous instances of flash flooding are possible, some of
which could potentially be significant. On Wednesday, the focus for
significant heavy rain and flash flooding shifts only slightly east from
the southern Plains toward the western Ozarks of Arkansas where another
Moderate Risk highlights the concern for numerous instances of flash
flooding due to repeated training of strong thunderstorms for these areas.
By later Wednesday into Thursday, another frontal system and strong cold
front descending out of the Intermountain West and the northern/central
Rockies will sweep to the south and east, ending the severe and flooding
threats and bringing cooler air into the region.
The aforementioned frontal system that brings an end to the severe weather
and flooding concerns across the southern Plains will first push across
the Pacific Northwest before digging southward through the Intermountain
West and Rockies the next couple of days. This system will bring unsettled
weather to the region through midweek, with areas of rain falling in the
lower elevations, and accumulating wet snow in the mountains. In the wake
of the system and cold front, drier weather works in later Wednesday into
Thursday as high pressure takes control.
A strong ridge of high pressure extending across much of the eastern U.S.
will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through mid to
late week. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common, including for
more northern locations like the Midwest and Northeast this afternoon
ahead of the cold front. Behind the front, portions of the Great Lakes and
Northeast cool down briefly Wednesday before warming back up on Thursday.
Overall near average temperatures are in store for the Western and central
U.S. Wednesday into Thursday before warming up some across the Pacific
Northwest heading into the latter half of the week.
Miller/Kong
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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