…Outbreak of severe weather, including strong tornadoes, expected for
portions of the Midwest/Plains into this evening, followed by strong to
severe thunderstorms from the interior Northeast to the southern Plains on
Tuesday…
…Potentially significant flash flooding increasing across portions of
the southern Plains beginning Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday…
…Above normal warmth spreads eastward from the central U.S. to the
eastern U.S. heading into midweek…
The center of an intensifying low pressure system continues to track
eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon,
bringing the threat of severe weather and isolated flash flooding to much
of the region. On the warm side of the system, building instability
combined with vigorous dynamics will likely lead to an outbreak of severe
thunderstorms heading into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center
maintains a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe weather over portions of
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa where strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and damaging winds are expected. Severe weather is also possible farther
south as well, and an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) and a Slight Risk (level
2/5) surrounds the Moderate Risk and extends from the Upper Midwest to
portions of the southern Plains ahead of a trailing cold front. Locally
heavy rainfall may also lead to some isolated instances of flash flooding,
especially where storms repeatedly train over the same areas.
The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall over the southern
Plains heading into Tuesday. Several rounds of storms are expected to
develop in the vicinity of the stalling boundary, bringing episodes of
heavy rain. Given the already saturated grounds from recent heavy
rainfall, and the potential for an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts, the Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall for portions of southeast Kansas,
southwest Missouri, central Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday.
Numerous instances of flash flooding are possible by later on Tuesday
some of which could potentially be significant. Another round of severe
weather is also on the table on Tuesday, this time stretching from the
interior Northeast to the southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds
are the main concerns, along with an isolated tornado or two. On
Wednesday, the focus for significant heavy rain and flash flooding remains
in place for portions of the southern Plains and expands into the western
Ozarks of Arkansas. Another Moderate Risk (level 3/4) highlights the
concern for numerous instances of flash flooding due to repeated training
of strong, moisture-laden thunderstorms.
A strong ridge of high pressure building over much of the central/eastern
U.S. will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through
midweek. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common, including for
more northern locations like the Midwest and Northeast ahead of the cold
front. Temperatures will begin to return back closer to average over the
West into Tuesday, with highs generally ranging in the 60s and 70s, with
80s into the Desert Southwest. Overall near average temperatures continue
for the West on Wednesday with above normal temperatures continuing for
much of the East. The exceptions to the warmer than normal conditions will
be in the wake of the cold front across portions of the Great Lakes and
interior Northeast.
Miller
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
