Indiana’s Weather For Monday

HEADLINES
– Sweet Spring sunshine today, and the start of above-average temps for the week.
– Showers and storms tomorrow, Gusty winds are the biggest severe threat.
– Drier Wednesday, and storms (non-severe) return Thursday. Showers Friday.
– Next weekend looks great!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TOMORROW

WEATHER FACTOID
We’ve gotten about twice the normal April precipitation.

TODAY’S MAP

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Current satellite and surface observations show quiet weather
conditions across the region with a broken mid-level cloud deck
passing through. These clouds have helped to slightly limit diurnal
cooling overnight so temperatures were increased by a few degrees.
At the surface, ridging remains in place which has promoted dry
weather.

Quiet weather will is expected to continue through most of the
period due to the aforementioned surface ridging. However,
increasing return flow as surface high pressure shifts east should
continue to advect moisture northward late today into tonight. This
will lead to increasing cloud cover. Temperatures are also going to
warm up very quickly during the day, generally ranging from the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Much of tonight should remain dry as forecast soundings suggest top-
down saturation will take time overcome a low-level dry airmass. By
late tonight, sufficient saturation throughout the column combined
with increasing dynamics from a low pressure system moving through
the Upper Midwest could support isolated showers or storms. Most
guidance shows measurable precipitation holding off until after
daybreak Tuesday, but low POPs were added to account for the low
potential.

Winds will become gusty late today and tonight as the MSLP gradient
tightens and a strong LLJ moves in. Look for increasing winds/clouds
to significantly limit diurnal cooling. Lows in the mid-upper 60s
tonight will be near normal highs for this of year.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

A cold front will track into the region on Tuesday ushering in a
period of unsettled weather along with the potential for scattered
severe storms. Periodic chances for rain and thunderstorms will
persist as the front stalls then lifts back north into Thursday. The
passage of a stronger low pressure system will finally force the
front to the east of the region by early Friday and bring an end to
the threat for rain. After a brief cooldown into the first part of
the weekend as an upper trough passes through...ridging aloft and at
the surface will bring a return to warm and dry weather into early
next week.

Tuesday through Thursday Night

The cold front will move into the area on early Tuesday with
convection increasing in coverage into the afternoon as the boundary
drops through the forecast area. Model trends continue to favor an
earlier impact to storms across central Indiana...perhaps as early
as mid to late morning within the moist and unstable airmass over
the region. Ample instability with SBCAPEs peaking near 2000 j/kg
and sufficient low level moisture with precip water values in excess
of 1.5 inches remain supporting factors for more intense convection.
Model soundings showing unidirectional shear and broad instability
profiles through the depth of the column suggesting damaging winds
as the most likely threat from convection with elevated cores
capable of producing large hail. Isolated tornadoes are possible but
the lack of more substantial directional shear and overall low level
storm relative helicity make it a secondary concern that will likely
be predicated on boundary interactions.

The core of the low level jet will lift away to the northeast by
early afternoon resulting in a more favorable setup for severe
weather from central Ohio northeast into New York. The tail end of
the stronger 850mb flow will linger over the forecast area through
the afternoon...sufficient for widespread showers and storms but
likely serving as a limiting factor to greater intensity and
coverage of more intense convection. At this point...anticipate
scattered severe storms in a messy convective mode that will likely
be multicellular clusters with a few embedded supercells.

Periodic showers and storms will continue as the front stalls near
the Ohio River Tuesday night then lifts back north across the entire
forecast area by late Wednesday as high pressure passes by to the
north over the Great Lakes. Locally heavy rainfall will become the
primary concern Tuesday night into Wednesday night focused
especially across southern counties with an axis of deeper low level
moisture and enhanced forcing in the vicinity of the oscillating
boundary. The presence of the high to the north may aid in an
extended period of dry weather north of I-70 late Tuesday night
through much of Wednesday before the front returns north.

Strengthening low pressure will track into the Great Lakes Thursday
with another round of stronger storms impacting the forecast area
ahead of the cold front. Abundant cloud cover though will hamper
overall instability and consequently convective intensity. The front
will clear the region early Friday. Highs near 80 Tuesday will fall
back into the 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday through Sunday

An upper trough will swing across the area Friday with the potential
for scattered showers during peak heating in the afternoon and early
evening. The arrival of high pressure Friday night will set the
stage for a dry weekend with mainly clear skies. Highs will only be
in the 60s for much of the area Friday and Saturday as the upper
trough passes through. The center of the high will move into the Mid
Atlantic Saturday night then off the coast Sunday enabling return
southerly flow into the Ohio Valley and warmer temperatures. Highs
near 70 Sunday will rise to around 80 early next week and possibly
warmer than that as next week progresses.

&&

INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly sunny. High 81.

Tonight: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 68.

Tuesday: Showers and storms. Storms could be produce damaging wind gusts. High 79.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and storms in the evening. Low 53.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 74.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers. Low 62.

Thursday: Showers and storms. High 75.

Thursday Night: Showers and storms. Low 56.

Friday: Mostly cluody. Scattered showers. High 68.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 46.

Saturday: Partly sunny. High 66.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low 45.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 73.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT