Indiana’s Weather For Thursday

HEADLINES
– Above average weather continues through Friday. Cooler, drier weekend.
– Pop up shower or storm after about 4 or 5pm today. Best chances east/south of Indy.
– Widespread rain/storms Friday. Few could be strong. (Gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain.)
– Storms next Tuesday could be strong to severe.

TODAY’S MAP

COMPUTER-MODELED RADAR AT 7PM FRIDAY

RAINFALL POTENTIAL

SEVERE RISK TUESDAY

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Current surface and radar observations show quiet weather
conditions with light winds across central Indiana. This is due to
surface high pressure near the region. Look for surface high
pressure to gradually shift eastward later today with return flow
aiding in advecting moisture northward.

Subtle ridging aloft will promote mostly dry conditions today and
plentiful sunshine. However, there is a low chance for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms within a summertime like pattern. Overall
forcing should be very weak due to the aforementioned ridging aloft,
but daytime heating combined with increasing moisture supports a low
chance for precipitation. Forecast soundings depict moderate
instability by this afternoon and steep low-level lapse rates which
could promote a few strong sub-severe storms. These storms may
produce brief heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds. Any
thunderstorms that develop are likely going to be short-lived
given very weak wind shear.

While lingering diurnal convection should dissipate shortly after
sunset, low chances for precipitation remain in the forecast
overnight. This is due to subtle forcing from an approaching system
and deeper moisture gradually surging northward. Expect above normal
temperatures through the period. Highs will range from the upper 70s
to low 80s today thanks to plentiful sunshine and return flow.
Meanwhile, increasing dewpoints from persistent southerly flow keeps
overnight temperatures mostly in the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

A low pressure system and associated parent trough will lead to
increasing precipitation chances early in the extended. Modest
forcing from the disturbance combined with diurnal heating and deeper
moisture surging northward should promote numerous thunderstorms on
Friday. Forecast soundings depict moderate destabilization and
sufficient effective deep-layer wind shear for loosely organized
thunderstorms. Most of these storms should remain sub-severe with
the potential for small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall. A few stronger marginally severe storms cannot be ruled
out as CAMs show effective deep-layer shear around 25-30 kts.

Look for precipitation chances to taper off Friday night once the
low pressure system moves east. Quiet weather is then expected over
the weekend due to upper ridging and surface high pressure in place.
Cold air advection will cool temperatures considerably. Highs over
the weekend are forecasted to mostly remain in the 60s with lows
well in the 40s Saturday night.

An active pattern likely returns across the central CONUS early next
week as ensemble guidance shows surface cyclogenesis ahead of an
upper trough. A lot of uncertainty remains on how this system will
evolve, but there is growing concern for severe weather potential.
The most likely timing for any severe weather potential should be
around Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. Stay tuned for
updates as details on the severe weather threat become more clear
over the coming days. Mundane weather should continue through Monday
before precipitation chances increase ahead of the developing
system. Return flow early next week will help to quickly warm
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 613 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Impacts:

- Low probability of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon.

- Chance for MVFR ceilings at the end of the period towards daybreak
  Friday.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period.
Light and variable winds will persist through daybreak before
increasing slightly and becoming south-southeasterly during the day.

Daytime heating and low-level moisture surging northward later today
may promote isolated thunderstorms, mainly near IND/BMG. There is
also a chance for MVFR ceilings towards the very end of the
period around daybreak Friday.

INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly to partly sunny. Pop-up shower or storm possible in the late afternoon. High 82.

Tonight: Spotty evening shower or storm. Low 62.

Friday: Periods of showers and storms. High 77.

Friday Night: Periods of showers and storms. Low 48.

Saturday: Clouds decrease. Cooler. High 63.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low 43.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 69.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 50.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 80.

Monday Night: Spotty showers and storms after midnight. Low 65.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers and storms. Storms could be strong to severe. High 82.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and storms. Low 53.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and cooler. High 69.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT