…Unsettled weather begins to expand in coverage across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. with a severe weather and heavy rain threat…
…Above average, warm Spring temperatures for most of the country
continue this week…
Unsettled weather will begin to expand in coverage across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. the next few days as embedded shortwaves in
southwesterly flow spur multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Moist southerly flow ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped
from the Midwest southwest through the central Plains, and a dryline
extending southward through the southern High Plains, will provide a broad
warm sector and help to focus one region of storm development. A Slight
Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
remains in effect through Tuesday evening across portions of the central
Plains and southern High Plains as some isolated thunderstorms ahead of
the dryline will carry the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Some
locally heavy downpours and isolated instances of flash flooding will also
be possible more broadly across the southern Plains into Tuesday night.
The coverage and intensity of storms is expected to pick up Wednesday and
especially into Thursday. For Wednesday, the SPC has noted a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms for portions of the southern High Plains where
some isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds will again be
possible. Locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding will also be
possible across the central and southern Plains. On Thursday, an
increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer as well as the expectation
for multiple rounds of storms into the evening hours has prompted a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) covering much of eastern Kansas,
northern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, western Missouri, far
southwestern Iowa, and far southeastern Nebraska for the threat of a few
more scattered instances of flash flooding. Showers are also expected in
moist post-frontal upslope flow along portions of the central/northern
High Plains and into the Rockies on Thursday. Some snow is expected for
higher mountain elevations. A second quasi-stationary frontal boundary
stretching from the Carolinas west through the Tennessee Valley will help
provide another focus area of showers and thunderstorms across the
Southeast the next couple of days, with some locally heavy downpours and
isolated flash flooding possible here as well.
Elsewhere, conditions will be mostly dry through Thursday. Some light
showers will be possible for areas of the interior Northeast, Great Lakes,
and the interior West/northern California. The SPC has noted low humidity
and gusty winds will lead to Elevated fire weather conditions (level 1/3)
across the west-central Florida Peninsula as well as for portions of far
west Texas, southern New Mexico, and southeastern Arizona on Wednesday.
Most of the country will continue to see above average, warm Spring
temperatures this week. Forecast highs Wednesday and Thursday generally
range from the 60s and 70s in southern New England, the Interior/Mountain
West, and the West Coast/Pacific Northwest; the 70s and 80s for the
Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and central Plains; and the 80s to low 90s across
the Southeast, southern Plains, and Southwest. Areas of the Northern Tier
of the country near the Canadian border will be cooler and below average,
with forecast highs in the 40s and 50s for areas of Maine and the interior
Northeast, the Upper Great Lakes, and portions of the northern
Plains/Rockies.
Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
