…Heavy rain and flooding threats into Sunday morning from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley…
…Severe weather likely from the Southern Plains into the Lower Arkansas,
Lower Missouri Valleys and into the Mid Mississippi Valley…
…Below average temperature across the mid section of the nation, Pacific
Northwest and Northern Rockies, while above average temperatures are
likely across the Southwest, Great Basin, Northern Plains and southeast
quarter of the CONUS…
An active spring storm pattern expected over the next 2 days from the
Southern to Central Plains, northeastward into the Lower Missouri Valley
and Mid Mississippi Valley region. Thunderstorms expected to become
increasingly active from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night/early
Sunday along a nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching from northern
Texas, across eastern Oklahoma into southern Missouri. With little
movement expected to this front into Sunday morning, there will be the
potential for repeat rounds of thunderstorms to move along this front.
This will lead to widespread heavy precipitation totals of 2 to 4 inches
in the vicinity of this front and increasing likelihood of flooding,
especially where repeat rounds of thunderstorms move across. During
Sunday morning, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the
slow moving front over northern Texas/southern Oklahoma, with this low
then moving northeastward into northern Missouri by Sunday evening and
into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday evening. As this area of low
pressure moves northeastward, the associated frontal boundaries emanating
from this system will become more progressive. While showers and
thunderstorms are still expected to be active later Sunday into Monday
with this system as it pushes northeastward, the increased progression of
the area of low pressure and the associated frontal boundaries will lead
to a lessening of the heavy precipitation threat through the Mississippi
Valley into the Upper Lakes region compared to what occurs Saturday night
into early Sunday over the Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley
region.
While the heavy precipitation threat decreases during Sunday afternoon
into Monday, the active thunderstorms with this system will support
potential for widespread severe weather from the Southern Plains into the
Lower Arkansas, Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valley region from
Saturday evening/night into Sunday night. High winds and large hail will
be the greatest risk across the Southern Plains into the Lower Arkansas
Valleys from Saturday night into early Sunday. Later on Sunday large hail
and high winds will remain a threat from the Lower Arkansas and Lower
Missouri Valley, while the tornado threat increases compared to the
Saturday night into early Sunday time frame.
Cooler than average temperatures likely across the mid section of the
nation from the Southern Plains, northeastward into the Upper Lakes where
precipitation will be active, producing widespread cloudy conditions.
Below average temperatures also likely in the wake of a cold front
pressing eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies
Saturday night/early Sunday. Above average temperatures likely across the
Southwest, Great Basin and a large portions of the southeast quarter of
the CONUS from Florida, the Southeast, Gulf Coast, Southern to Central
Appalachians, Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Across these regions, a
few record highs are possible Sunday, with more widespread record high
morning low temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic across the Central to
Southern Appalachians, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions
possible Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings.
Oravec
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
