Indiana’s Weather For Today

HEADLINES
– Brighter sky, lighter wind today, and a few degrees warmer.
– Storms late Friday night and overnight could be severe.
– Up to two inches of rain over Easter Weekend.

TODAY’S MAP

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

No changes needed to the forecast with this update. Continue to
expect a quiet day with less wind and warmer temperatures than
yesterday. Skies should be mostly clear until the afternoon hours
when high cirrus begins to arrive from the west. There may be a few
diurnal cumulus but the boundary layer seems a bit too dry for that
right now.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows the last bit of cyclonic
lower level flow over Indiana. A strong area of high pressure was
stretching from the Mississippi delta to MN and WI. GOES16 shows
clear skies throughout the Mississippi Valley and western Indiana.
All of this was poised to enter central Indiana today. SCT-ISO cloud
cover was found over east central Indiana and was departing to the
east. Aloft a ridge axis was pushing eastward into the high plains,
while a deep low was found over Quebec. This placed lee side NW flow
over Indiana, in a favorable area of subsidence.

Today and Tonight -

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight. Models suggest the
large surface high will push into Indiana today before exiting to
Appalachia tonight. This will result Mostly Sunny skies today, as
only a stray CI will be found within the flow aloft. Forecast
soundings and time heights show a dry column through the day. With
NW surface flow in place light minimal temperature advection will be
in place, leading to highs mainly in the lower 60s.

As the ridge axis builds eastward overnight, subsidence within the
column over Indiana will end. This will begin a slow invasion of
some high clouds from Pacific moisture within the flow aloft to
arrive late. Here forecast soundings show very dry low levels
tonight, however the upper levels trend toward saturation overnight.
Thus after a mostly clear evening, skies should become partly cloudy
overnight due to high CI arriving. Given the start of some warm air
advection and SE winds overnight, lows will not be as cold, falling
into the lower and middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Thursday Through Friday.

Another seasonably warm day is expected for Thursday with the broad
upper level ridging gradually beginning to break down ahead of the
approaching cold front with at least some chance for some
precipitation late Thursday into Thursday night as some of the
higher resolution models are picking up on a weak upper level wave
in the exiting ridge which may provide just enough lift for a few
showers. Cloud bases will be fairly high so it may just end up
leading to increased cloud cover with no precipitation, but will
continue to monitor these higher resolution trends going forward.

Saturday Through Tuesday.

Focus then shifts to the conditional threat for a few strong to
severe storms Friday night as a cold front pushes through central
Indiana. Ahead of the front, continued flow from the Gulf will bring
high temperatures to near 80 and dewpoints into the low 60s. This
warm and moist air will interact with an upper level trough moving
in from the northwest with a seasonably potent blast of cold air
behind it. Showers and storms are expected to initiate along the
southward moving cold front with both dynamics and thermodynamics
favorable for a few strong to severe storms. Details continue to
come into better agreement that the better chances for precipitation
will be during the overnight hours with models trending in a more
broad and widespread precipitation which may lead to a slightly
lower overall severe threat, but locally higher flooding threat. In
addition to the rain and severe threat, gradient winds of 30-35 mph
are likely through the afternoon with efficient mixing down of LLJ
winds.

This flooding threat becomes exacerbated by the fact that the front
is expected to stall across the Ohio Valley which keeps
precipitation chances around through at least Saturday night with
the next rain producing system quickly moving in late Sunday into
Monday. While there is uncertainty as to exactly where the front
will stall and whether each successive round of rain will impact the
same areas, ensembles have been trending higher on the
probabilities for both 2+ and 4+ inch totals between Friday night
and Tuesday with higher end outliers of 6+. Amounts on the higher
end of the potential would bring a return to widespread minor
flooding along area rivers and pockets of moderate flooding as shown
by the latest MMEFS runs.

INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Sunny and not as windy. High 61.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Low 41.

Thursday: Partly sunny. High 64.

Thursday Night: Cloudy. Spotty sprinkle or light shower possible. Low 54.

Friday: Partly sunny. Windy and warmerj. High 78.

Friday Night: Showers and storms in the late evening and overnight. Some storms could be severe. Low 61.

Saturday: Rain and some thunder. High 69.

Saturday Night: Rain and some thunder. Low 52.

Easter Sunday: Mainly morning showers. Mostly cloudy. High 67.

Sunday Night: More showers and storms. Low 48.

Monday: Lingering early morning showers, then mostly cloudy. High 64.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 44.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 70.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT