Indiana’s Weather For Sunday

HEADLINES
– Partly to mostly cloudy, and warmer today.
– Potential for thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
– Major flooding continues on the lower White River.

TODAY’S MAP

NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Surface analysis this morning shows strong high pressure stretching
from WNY across EKY and WVA to AL. Low pressure was found over
eastern CO, pushing out of the Rockies. A moderate pressure gradient
was in place between these two systems over KS, MO and western IL.
Winds across Central Indiana were light and from the southeast
becoming southerly. Aloft, water vapor showed strong ridging over
the plains, nosing northeast into the Great Lakes. High clouds
streaming within the flow aloft were pushing into Indiana.

Today -

Models suggest the upper ridging will drift over Indiana today,
pushing to the Appalachians by the end of the day. Little to no
forcing is seen within the flow aloft. Meanwhile within the lower
levels, the moderate pressure gradient to the west is expected to
advect east across Indiana. This will allow for continued warm air
advection today on southerly winds along with some gusts at times.
Forecast soundings continue to show very dry air within the lower
levels, and dew point depressions are suggested to max out around
25F this afternoon. However the high clouds as seen within the
GOES16 imagery is expected to continue to stream across Indiana,
resulting in some filtered sunshine or a partly sunny day. HRRR
suggests a stray shower is possible, but given the large dew point
depressions, anything that should occur will mainly be virga or a
trace.

Given the warm air advection, expect highs in the lower to middle
60s.

Tonight -

Models show westerly flow aloft in the wake of the departed ridge as
an upper trough begins to sag southward into the northern plains
states. An associated area of surface low pressure is suggested to
push northeast from the plains to the Great Lakes all the while
pushing a cold front to Indiana by Monday morning. Again, deep
moisture fails to be present for this feature as forecast soundings
fail to saturate. Furthermore upper forcing is none to limited. Time
heights do suggest the arrival of some low clouds ahead of the cold
front across Indiana and central Indiana does remain in the warm
sector through the night. This will just add up to some stratocu
across the area tonight. Again, a rogue sprinkle cannot be ruled
out, but any precipitation is expected to be non-measurable at this
time.

Given the expected clouds and continued warm air advection through
the night, lows in the middle to upper 50s will be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Monday and Tuesday.

A strong upper level low pressure system will be moving across the
Canadian border Sunday night into Monday with a cold front
stretching southward into the Ohio Valley. Models have fairly good
agreement in the front passing through central Indiana during the
afternoon hours on Monday with lesser certainty on the strength of
the lift and available moisture for precipitation. Instability will
be marginal with dewpoints dropping as good near surface mixing
occurs. Higher confidence in storm initiation will be southeast of
the forecast area but depending on the exact timing, there could
storms as far northwest as Indianapolis. Any storms that do form
could have damaging wind gusts with model soundings showing a
favorable dynamic environment with an inverted V thermal profile.
Cooler but still seasonable temperatures will then be in place for
Tuesday with strong northwesterly flow both at the surface and aloft.

Quiet but breezy weather is expected for Tuesday with a low-end
potential for a few showers as colder air works in aloft and creates
some low-end instability in the mid-levels. Moisture will be
marginal, but as often is the case on the backend of more
significant upper level lows, there will be just enough lift to
squeeze out a few showers. Winds will occasionally gust to 25 to 35
mph with the tight pressure gradients in place.

Broad northwesterly flow will continue into Tuesday night with the
potential for a return to frost Tuesday with lows in the 30s but
with wind expected to remain in the 8-12 mph range for the areas
dropping closer to 35 coverage should remain limited to sheltered
areas.

Wednesday Through Saturday.

Broad ridging will dominate the weather pattern for the middle of
the week with the upper level jet remaining well north of the
forecast area. Good flow from the Gulf will help to bring a return
to warmer than normal temperatures and allow for occasionally breezy
conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation chances look low
mid to late week but will be monitoring the potential for another
low pressure system to move in from the northwest towards the
weekend. The pattern then begins to look more active going into the
next week with multiple chances for precipitation.

NWS CHARTS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT