…Snow develops across the upper Midwest to the upper Great Lakes on
Sunday as severe weather and heavy rain threat emerge across the
Southeast…
…More wet weather expected for the Pacific Northwest and mountain snow
across the northern Rockies this weekend…
…Fire weather threat continues this weekend across large portions of the
Central to Southern Plains…
An upper-level wave over the Rockies dropping southeastward over the
Plains today will help to strengthen/organize a low pressure/frontal
system in the lee of the Rockies, leading to increasing moist southerly
flow and precipitation chances across the central/eastern U.S. the next
couple of days. The first round of storms will begin Saturday evening
ahead of the initial wave of moisture/warm front lifting northward over
the central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Showers and storms overnight
may be severe, with a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) from the
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) centered over southwestern Missouri for the
threat of some large hail. Then, on Sunday, more widespread storms are
expected ahead of a cold front sweeping southeastward across the ArkLaTex,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley. Another Slight Risk of
severe weather is in effect as increasing shear and sufficient CAPE will
lead to some more potent thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. In addition, increasing storm coverage and the
tendency for repetitive rounds of storms ahead of the slowing cold front
may lead to some locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding.
Showers and storms will continue ahead of the front on Monday as it pushes
southeastward towards the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Additional rounds of
locally heavy rainfall as well as the risk of isolated flash flooding will
be most likely along the central Gulf Coast.
To the north, a wintry mix of freezing rain and moderate snow is expected
along and to the north of the low track across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes. Winter Weather Advisories are in place from northern
Minnesota/Wisconsin into the UP of Michigan for snowfall of 3-6″ as well
as a glaze to a 0.1″ of ice through Sunday. Precipitation chances will
spread into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast late
Sunday and into Monday as the system moves eastward, with a wintry mix
likely for interior locations and higher elevations of the Appalachians
and rainfall along the East Coast. Little to no snow accumulations are
expected except perhaps for a couple inches in the Adirondacks and higher
elevations of New England.
Precipitation chances will continue for the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies as an active storm pattern remains in place. Some lingering lower
elevation rains/higher elevation snows are expected through Saturday
evening as one system departs the region. Precipitation will begin to
quickly pick back up again by early Sunday as another system approaches
from the Pacific. Moist flow along the Olympics and northern Cascades in
Washington will lead to locally heavy rainfall and some isolated instances
of flooding, with much lighter rain amounts expected elsewhere. Higher
elevations of the northern Cascades and northern Rockies will see another
round of heavy snowfall with totals over a foot possible.
A combination of very dry, blustery conditions as well as above average
temperatures will continue to lead to fire weather conditions over
portions of the Plains this weekend. The SPC has highlighted a Critical
Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) for eastern New Mexico and southwest
Texas through the rest of Saturday, with an Elevated Risk (level 1/3)
elsewhere across much of the central/southern Plains. An Elevated Risk
will continue into Sunday.
Much of the country will see warming, above average conditions over the
next couple of days as an upper-level ridge begins to build over the
central/western U.S. in a more highly amplified pattern. Highs from the
Pacific Northwest through the Great Basin, central Plains, Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic will rise from the 50s and
60s on Sunday into the 60s and 70s on Monday. Even warmer temperatures are
expected along the southern tier of the country, with 70s in the
Southeast, 70s and 80s in the southern Plains, and 80s and 90s into the
Desert Southwest. Areas from the Great Lakes to New England will remain
cooler and below average as the storm system moves through, with highs
mainly in the 30s and 40s.
Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
